Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday…along with the low temperatures Friday:

83 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
90 – 77  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 76  Molokai AP
87 – 76  Kahului AP, Maui
89 – 78  Kailua Kona
85 – 73  Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Friday evening:

0.13  Kilohana, Kauai
0.41  Tunnel RG, Oahu
3.65   Molokai
0.36  Lanai
 0.00  Kahoolawe
2.09  West Wailuaiki, Maui
1.69  Honokaa, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Friday evening:

20  Lihue, Kauai
30  Kuaokala, Oahu
20  Molokai
24  Lanai
27  Kahoolawe
20  Maalaea Bay, Maui
23  Kealakomo, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/avn-animated.gif
 Tropical Storm Norman is passing by offshore north-northeast of the islands…while being torn apart by upper level wind shear / Hurricane Olivia will be approaching the islands…as a tropical storm early next week (click images to enlarge)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HPIR.JPG

Hurricane Olivia in the eastern Pacific…is heading towards the Big Island

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP17/refresh/EP172018_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/023536_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP17/refresh/EP172018_earliest_reasonable_toa_34+png/143843_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy

 

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/State_VIS_loop.gif
Low clouds arriving on the trade winds, mostly windward areas…some high cirrus south

 

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers locally and offshore…although limited
 Looping image

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

High Surf Advisory

Tropical Storm Warning

 

Broad Brush Overview: Trades will be lighter, with light and variable winds taking over tonight through Monday, as tropical storm Norman passes by northeast of the state. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain locations, then shift over the interior and leeward upcountry locations each afternoon beginning Saturday. Hurricane Olivia is forecast to approach the islands from the east early next week, then move through the area from east to west Tuesday night through mid-week.

Details: The models support a transition period now, due to a weakening pressure gradient over the state, as tropical storm Norman passes by to the northeast. Trades will turn north and northeast, quickly trending lighter. This pattern will result in land and sea breeze conditions becoming established, which should hold through Monday. Clouds and showers will continue to favor windward areas, then shift over the upcountry leeward areas during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. A combination of stable conditions and mostly dry air, however, should limit this afternoon rainfall.

Looking Ahead: The models depict Hurricane Olivia approaching the state from the east Tuesday. The models go on to show Olivia continuing on a general westward track through the state Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The weakening pattern depicted in the forecast Monday through Tuesday will likely continue, as Olivia comes under the influence of strong upper level wind shear…like Norman has. The current forecast would suggest that tropical storm Olivia will bring increasing rain chances beginning Tuesday, along with gusty winds…it would be wise to stay tuned to the future prospects of this storm.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website

Marine Environmental Conditions: The combination of high pressure far north of the state, and TS Norman passing by northeast of the islands is leading to locally strong trades across coastal waters. Norman is also sending a large east swell towards us. As Norman continues to move off to the northwest, the local pressure gradient will be decreased, causing local winds to ease and shift to the north and northeast. The swell will also shift toward the northeast and gradually diminish. Gentle north winds will dominate through the weekend, then shift to the northeast early next week. Uncertainty ramps up during the middle of next week…as what will likely be tropical storm Olivia will be moving into the area.

The large east swell from Norman will decline and shift to the east-northeast, border line warning level surf or high end advisory surf is expected. The swell will drop off from east to west and shift northeast Saturday, possibly maintaining advisory level surf for the western islands. As the Norman swell fades, low easterly swells generated by distant Hurricane Olivia will arrive. This swell will continue to build early next week…likely producing warning level surf during mid-week.

A small southwest swell originating from the Tasman Sea may bring inconsistent, moderate-sized surf to south facing shores Sunday into Tuesday.



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering Tropical Storm 06L (Florence), Potential Tropical Cyclone 08L in the Atlantic, and Tropical Depression 07L (Gordon), which has moved inland from the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including Tropical Storm 16E (Norman) and Hurricane 17E Olivia…and newly formed Tropical Cyclone 26W (Mangkhut)


>>> Atlantic Ocean:

Tropical Storm 06L (Florence) 

Here’s what the computer models are showing

According to the NHC…Florence is moving toward the west near 9 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple days. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by early next week and continue into middle part of next week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Gradual restrengthening is forecast this weekend, and Florence is expected to become a hurricane again Sunday and a major hurricane early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

Tropical Storm 08L (Helene)

According to the NHC…Helene is moving toward the west near 13 mph. This general motion will likely continue through the weekend. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected early next week. On the forecast track, Helene will pass very close to the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days, and Helene is expected to become a hurricane Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center.

Tropical Depression 09L 

According to the NHC…The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph. A turn toward the west is expected later today, and that general motion at a slightly faster forward speed is forecast to continue through the weekend and into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by early next week.

1.) A trough of low pressure is generating disorganized showers over the western Atlantic near Bermuda. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur before environmental conditions become unfavorable in a couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

>>> Caribbean Sea:

>>> Gulf of Mexico:

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 17E (Olivia) remains at the Category 2 level on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Here’s what the computer models are showing


According to the NHC…Olivia is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph. A westward motion is forecast to begin today and should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, Olivia will move into the Central Pacific basin Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is predicted over the next day or so, but Olivia is forecast to remain a hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

>>> 1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization, and it appears that a tropical depression could be forming. If this trend continues, then advisories would be initiated on this system later today. The low is expected to move northwestward at about 10 mph during the next couple of days, away from the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…100 percent


>>> Central Pacific:

Tropical Storm 16E (Norman) is a weakening tropical storm

Here’s what the computer models are showing


According to the CPHC…Norman is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph and a similar motion to the north-northwest or north is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Storm 26W (Mangkhut)

JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

Interesting: Summer 2018 ranked 4th hottest on record for U.S. – In a tie with 1934, the Summer of 2018 ranked as the fourth hottest summer on record for the contiguous United States after three months of blistering temperatures. August 2018, meanwhile, finished as the 17th warmest August, as the Southwest and Northeast broiled under record heat.

Climate by the numbers

August 2018

The average August temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 73.6 degrees F (1.5 degrees above average), making it the 17th-warmest August in the 124-year record, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

Parts of the Southwest had temperatures in the top 10 for warmth, while several Northeast states experienced record heat, largely due to record-warm overnight temperatures.

The average precipitation for August was 2.99 inches (0.37 inch above average), making it the 20th wettest August on record, tied with 1979 and 2005. Areas from the Great Plains to the East Coast had above-average precipitation thanks to slow-moving storm systems that dropped heavy rain. The Mid-Atlantic region saw record precipitation.

Year to date | Meteorological summer

During the meteorological summer (June through August), the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 73.5 degrees F, 2.1 degrees above average. In fact, both 2018 and 1934 hold the record for having had the fourth warmest summer.

The average U.S. temperature for the year to date (January through August) was 55.7 degrees F, 1.8 degrees above normal. It was the 10th warmest YTD on record with an above-average precipitation total of 21.67 inches (0.96 of an inch above average).

More notable climate events

  • No beating the heat: Twenty-three states across the West, South and Northeast had much-above-average summer temperatures. The average overnight low summer temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 60.9 degrees F (2.5 degrees above average and 0.1 degree hotter than the previous record in 2016.)

  • Hurricane Lane drenched Hawaii: Lane brought massive flooding and extreme rainfall (preliminary reports of more than 50 inches in places) to parts of the Hawaiian Islands.

  • Drought increased slightly: August ended with 34.4 percent of the contiguous U.S. in drought, up from 34.1 percent in July.