Hawaiian Islands Weather details & Aloha paragraphs / June 25-26, 2012

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday:

Lihue, Kauai –                     83   
Honolulu airport, Oahu –  84  (Record high for Monday / 92 – 1987)  
Kaneohe, Oahu –                 82
Molokai airport –                  80
Kahului airport, Maui –         83  
Kona airport –                     83
Hilo airport, Hawaii –            81

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level – and on the highest mountain top around the state…as of 5pm Monday afternoon:

Barking Sands, Kauai – 84
Hilo, Hawaii – 73
 
Mauna Kea –   37    (near 13,800 feet on the Big Island)

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions. Here's the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui…although this webcam is not always working correctly.

Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific – Here’s the latest weather information coming out of the National Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here.  Here's a tropical cyclone tracking map for the eastern and central Pacific.

 Aloha Paragraphs

 
 
   Locally strong and gusty trade winds through Tuesday…
easing up some as we get into Wednesday onwards

Passing windward showers at times…leeward in places
  

As this weather map shows, we have a large near 1033 millibar high pressure system to the north of the islands.  At the same time, a ridge of high pressure extends southwest from this high pressure cell…which is located to the northwest of the Aloha state. Our local winds will remain active from the trade wind direction through Saturday…strengthening Monday into Tuesday.

The following numbers represent the most recent top wind gusts (mph), along with directions as of Monday afternoon:

33            Port Allen, Kauai – NE  
44            Kahuku trng area, Oahu – ESE
36            Molokai – ENE 
43            Kahoolawe – NE
38            Kahului – NE
42            Lanai – NE
36            PTA Keamuku, Big Island – NE

We can use the following links to see what’s going on in our area of the north central Pacific Ocean.  Here's the latest NOAA satellite picture – the latest looping satellite image…and finally the latest looping radar image for the Hawaiian Islands.

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Monday evening:
 
1.45               Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.83               Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.68               Molokai
0.03               Lanai
0.00               Kahoolawe
2.52               Puu Kukui, Maui
0.55               Kawainui Stream, Big Island  

Sunset Commentary:  Our trade winds will remain strong and gusty through Tuesday…tapering down some starting Wednesday onwards. As for showers, there will continue to be some, falling generally in the light to moderately heavy range along our windward sides. These showers will stretch over into leeward sides at times too, at least on some of the smaller islands. There will be off and on passing showers along those north and east windward coasts and slopes periodically through the rest of the week. 

As this large view satellite image shows, that the elongated retired cold front has now moved through the island chain, and is located offshore to our southwest this evening. Meanwhile, there continues to be those few brighter white high and middle level clouds far to our west. Putting this next satellite image into motion, we can see the trade winds carrying that cloud band away to our west now. Then too, we can see those deeper clouds to our west, the brighter white ones…which remain well offshore from the islands. Finally, here's a closer look at our islands using this satellite picture…so we can keep track of shallow lower layer showery clouds…as they approach the windward sides tonight into Tuesday morning.

Here in Kula, Maui at 520pm, it was mostly clear to partly cloudy with light breezes…and an air temperature of 77.1F degrees. Our local weather will remain quite pleasant, following early summer climatology pretty closely over the next several days, likely through the rest of this week. This suggests in turn, that our trade winds will continue blowing, with passing showers falling along our windward coasts and slopes at times. The leeward sides will remain nice and sunny for the most part during the days. The ocean is warming up nicely nice, making trips to the beach very comfortable for a swim and other water sport activities! ~~~ I'll be back early Tuesday morning with your next new weather narrative, I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you're spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

[World-wide tropical cyclone activity:

Central Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones expected through the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones expected through the next 48 hours.

Atlantic Ocean:   Tropical storm Debby remains active in the Gulf of Mexico. TS Debby was located approximately 90 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, with sustained winds of 45 mph. Here's the National Hurricane Center's graphical track map for Debby…along with a satellite image.  Here's a looping satellite image showing Debby as well. Debby's tropical storm force winds and heavy rains, are occurring along portions of the northeast Gulf coast. This tropical storm is just inching along or nearly stalled at times, which increases the threat of heavy flooding rains along the coasts of Alabama and Florida, with up to 10-15"…and isolated extreme 25" amounts possible!  News agencies are pointing out that there has been two fatalities from this tropical storm…so far.

Debby's formation on June 23 came a full two months ahead of the usual formation date of the season's fourth storm in the Atlantic, August 23. Debby's formation beats by twelve days the previous record for formation of the fourth named storm of the year in the Atlantic, set in 2005, when Hurricane Dennis was named on July 5.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

Here is a graphical tropical weather outlook…showing this tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico

Western Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is pointing out an area of disturbed weather in the Philippine Sea to the east of the Philippine Islands. There is a high chance that this disturbance, being called 94W Invest will become a new tropical depression within the next 48 hours. Here is a JTWC graphical map showing where this tropical disturbance is located.

South Indian Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Interesting:  A groundbreaking new study led by UCLA climate expert Alex Hall shows that climate change will cause temperatures in the Los Angeles region to rise by an average of 4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit by the middle of this century, tripling the number of extremely hot days in the downtown area and quadrupling the number in the valleys and at high elevations. Released June 22, "Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region" is the first study to provide specific climate-change predictions for the greater Los Angeles area, with unique predictions down to the neighborhood level.

The report, the most sophisticated regional climate study ever developed, was produced by UCLA with funding and support from the city of Los Angeles, in partnership with the Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability (LARC).

"The changes our region will face are significant, and we will have to adapt," said Hall, an associate professor in UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences who is also a lead author on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, which, among other things, assess global climate-change simulations for the United Nations.

"Every season of the year in every part of the county will be warmer," Hall said. "This study lays a foundation for the region to confront climate change. Now that we have real numbers, we can talk about adaptation." The LARC's unprecedented coalition of cities, universities, businesses, non-profits and other agencies made the study possible.

Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and the city of Los Angeles led the way, obtaining a $613,774 grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to study and share climate research and committing $484,166 to commission UCLA's climate-change study. Though scientists knew to expect warming, this is the first time policymakers in the Los Angeles area have precise information on which to base their plans.

"UCLA's model shows projected climate changes down to the neighborhood level, allowing us to apply the rigor of science to long-term planning for our city and our entire region," Villaraigosa said. "With good data driving good policies, we can craft innovative solutions that will preserve our environment and enhance the quality of life for the next generation of Angelenos."

Facts and figures from the study

The study looked at the years 2041-60 to predict the average temperature change by mid-century. The data covers all of Los Angeles County and 30 to 60 miles beyond, including all of Orange County and parts of Ventura, San Bernardino and Riverside counties, and reaching as far as Palm Springs, Bakersfield and Santa Barbara.

The study overlaid this entire area with a grid of squares 1.2 miles across and provided unique temperature predictions for each square. This is in contrast to global climate models, which normally use grids 60 to 120 miles across — big enough to include areas as different as Long Beach and Lancaster.

According to the study, coastal areas like Santa Monica and Long Beach are likely to warm an average of 3 to 4 degrees. Dense urban areas like downtown Los Angeles and the San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys will warm an average of 4 degrees, and mountain and desert regions like Palm Springs and Lancaster will warm 4 to 5 degrees.

Some of the smallest changes predicted, yet still nearing a 4-degree increase, are in Oxnard (3.68 degrees), Venice (3.70), Santa Barbara (3.73), Santa Monica (3.74), San Pedro (3.78), Torrance (3.80), Long Beach (3.82) and Santa Ana (3.85).

Among the highest predicted increases are Wrightwood (5.37), Big Bear Lake (5.23), Palm Springs (5.15), Palmdale (4.92), Lancaster (4.87), Bakersfield (4.48) and Santa Clarita (4.44). Table 2 in the study calls out 27 distinct locations, such as downtown Los Angeles (3.92), San Fernando (4.19), Woodland Hills (4.26), Eagle Rock (3.98), Pasadena (4.05), Pomona (4.09), Glendale (3.99) and Riverside (4.23).

These figures are only annual averages, and the day-to-day increase in temperatures will vary, said Hall, who is a member of UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability (IoES) and director of the institute's Center for Climate Change Solutions. Southern Californians should expect slightly warmer winters and springs but much warmer summers and falls, with more frequent heat waves.

Temperatures now seen only on the seven hottest days of the year in each region will occur two to six times as often. The number of days when the temperature will climb above 95 degrees will increase two to four times, depending on the location.

Those days will roughly double on the coast, triple in downtown Los Angeles and Pasadena, and quadruple in Woodland Hills. In Palm Springs, the number of extremely hot days will increase from an annual average of 75 to roughly 120.

The most sophisticated regional climate study ever developed

The type of climate modeling used in the study is done almost exclusively at the national or international level, said Paul Bunje, the managing director of the LARC, which is based at UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. Other cities and states have localized global climate models — but usually by localizing only one model.

Hall's team needed months of computer time to downscale 22 global climate models, each with slightly different assumptions about how to predict climate change or factors like future greenhouse gas emissions. Hall's team included UCLA postdoctoral students Fengpeng Sun and Daniel Walton and graduate student Mark Nakamura.

Once they recalculated the almost two dozen global models at the local level, the team analyzed the results and integrated them into an ensemble projection to create the forecast for the entire region. "This is the best, most sophisticated climate science ever done for a city," said Bunje, who is also the executive director of UCLA's IoES Center for Climate Change Solutions.

"L.A. is one of the first cities to get its act together, from the scientists all the way up to the mayor," Bunje said. "Nobody knew precisely how to adapt to climate change because no one had the data — until now. These are shocking numbers, and we will have to adapt."

Cutting emissions will reduce but not eliminate warming

Cutting greenhouse gas emissions could reduce the impact on Los Angeles, Hall said. However, even if the world has unanticipated — and perhaps unrealistic — success in drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the greater Los Angeles area will still warm to about 70 percent of the currently predicted levels, the study found. "We looked not only at a business-as-usual scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue but also at a scenario where emissions are curtailed," Hall said.

"Even if we drastically cut pollution worldwide, there will still be quite a bit of warming in Los Angeles. I was a little taken aback by how much warming remains, no matter how aggressively we cut back. It was sobering." "Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region" is the first of five planned studies Hall will conduct for the city and the LARC about how climate change will affect the Southland.

Hall's team plans to develop similarly comprehensive models for local rainfall, Santa Ana wind patterns, coastal fog (including June gloom), and soil moisture, run-off and evaporation. Preliminary results already show that Santa Ana winds and June gloom will react to climate change, Hall said.

Global warming is local warming

"I think for many people, climate change still feels like a nebulous, abstract, potential future change, and this makes it more real," Hall said. "It's eye-opening to see how much it will warm where you live. This data lays a foundation for really confronting this issue, and I'm very optimistic that we can confront and adapt to a changing climate."