Glenn James
Hawaii Weather Today
Creator, Author, and Administrator for 30 years

 

The latest update to this website was at 830am Friday morning HST


Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Friday morning:

0.63  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
1.12  Lyon, Oahu
0.38  Puu Alii, Molokai
0.00  Lanai
1.03  Puu Kukui, Maui
1.02  Kulaimano, Big Island


The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Friday morning:

22  Lihue, Kauai – NE
29  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu – SE
25  Makapulapai, Molokai – ESE 
29  Lanai 1, Lanai – ENE
36  Kealaloloa Rg, Maui – NNE
31  Kawaihae Rd, Big Island – NE


Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the (~10,023 feet high) Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES18-TPW-13-900x540.gif

Thunderstorms in the deeper tropics south…possible tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific  

>>> Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of next week while moving westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western portion of the East Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/hi/14/20261491000-20261491750-GOES18-ABI-HI-14-600x600.gif

Variably cloudy 

 

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https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKM_loop.gif

Localized showers…mostly windward 

 

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Please open this link to see details on the current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above




~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Aloha Friday comments:  I’m at home here in upper Kula, Maui, Hawaii

It’s mostly clear here in Maui County with calm winds at my place, and with a chilly low of 49 degrees and the relative humidity is 76%


>>> Highest Temperature Thursday, May 28, 2026 – 108 degrees at Rio Grande Village, TX
>>> Lowest Temperature Friday, May 29, 2026 – 25 degrees at Bryce Canyon, UT

 

Dry season (May through September 2026) outlook (NOAA)

> The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) latest ENSO forecast favors (~80% chance) El
Niño conditions emerging by early summer and a greater than 90% chance of El Niño
persisting through the 2026/2027 winter.
> ENSO-neutral conditions present as of March 2026. CPC issued an El Niño Watch
(El Niño conditions favored to develop within the next 6 months) on April 9 .
> While uncertainty in El Niño strength remains, there is a greater than 60% chance
for at least a strong El Niño for late fall through winter.
> Caveats: The ENSO strength probabilities are NOT the same as the probability of
realized impacts. Stronger El Niño events do NOT ensure stronger impacts, but can
make it more likely that certain impacts could occur.
> Climate model consensus and the official CPC forecast favor above-normal
precipitation for all Hawaiian Islands through early autumn, which coincides with
past El Niño impacts in Hawaii.
> The 2026 Central Pacific basin hurricane outlook from CPC indicates the likelihood
of an above-normal season for the basin, which is located north of the equator
between 140°W and the International Date Line. Tropical cyclones and their
remnants can be significant contributors to summertime rainfall in Hawaii.
> Significant wet season rainfall and the potential for above-normal summer rainfall may help
delay (but not prevent) drought development and significant wildfire risk.
> However, the resulting vegetation growth provides abundant fuel and will likely
increase the potential for significant wildfire risk once it dries out.
> CPC indicates a likely switch from above normal summer rainfall to below normal
rainfall as we head into our climatological wet season.
> Any eventual drought impacts are expected to be felt first for non-irrigated agriculture, water
systems dependent on surface water diversions, and residents relying on rainfall catchment.

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview…as of Friday morning: Breezy trades will gradually weaken through the weekend, as a low pressure system developing to the far north disrupts the surface ridge extending over the islands. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain areas through Friday, then focus shifts to sea breezes each afternoon over the weekend.

Early next week, increasing moisture will move up the island chain from the southeast, increasing rain chances for the eastern end of the state Monday and Tuesday. Moderate to locally breezy trades are expected to return shortly thereafter for the remainder of the forecast period.

Weather Details for the Hawaiian Islands…as of Friday morning: A strong surface ridge positioned north of the state, will remain the primary driver of weather conditions across the Hawaiian Islands today. This pattern will continue to support moderate to locally breezy trades, and periodic shower activity mainly focused over windward and mountain areas. In addition, a weak upper-level trough quickly moving west to east across the state this morning, will temporarily weaken the low-level inversion, allowing for a slight increase in moisture, cloud cover, and shower activity through the morning hours.

Trades will begin to weaken shortly thereafter, as a broad area of low pressure develops southward from the Aleutian Islands of AK. This system will erode the surface ridge and weaken the local pressure gradient, leading to lighter winds and the potential for localized land and sea breeze development through the weekend into early next week. As a result, interior and leeward areas may experience increased afternoon cloud and shower development, followed by overnight clearing.

Model guidance indicates that moisture levels will gradually increase between Monday night and Wednesday as a large plume of tropical moisture lifts northwestward across the island chain from the southeast. Meanwhile, ridging will begin to rebuild over the region as the low pressure system lifts northward into the Gulf of Alaska, allowing trades to strengthen once again. This return to a more typical trade pattern will favor locally scattered showers, mainly favoring windward and mountain areas, through the remainder of the forecast period.


https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/npac.gif


Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Looping Surface Precipitation…through the next 8-days / Vog Map

 

Marine Environmental Conditions…as of Friday morning: Fresh to strong trade winds will persist today as the subtropical ridge remains strong north of the state. This will support an extension of the Small Craft Advisory through this afternoon for the windier waters around Maui and the Big Island. Thereafter, guidance depicts the ridge beginning to weaken in response to broad low pressure developing roughly 1,500 nautical miles to the north near the Aleutian Islands this weekend through early next week. This will translate to local trades easing into the light to moderate range, likely giving way to localized land and sea breezes near the coasts late this weekend through early next week. A return of moderate to fresh easterly trades is likely by mid-week as the ridge strengthens.

An active pattern is in store for surf along south-facing shores as we head into June, due to a series of recent gale- to storm- force lows passing through our swell window near New Zealand over the past week. Expect surf to gradually build today as forerunners from a long-period south-southwest swell arrive, while the current medium-period south swell fades out. Our buoys are already reflecting this new source with energy registering in the 20-23 second bands this morning. Surf heights will likely reach the advisory level by tonight, with the swell becoming fully established by Saturday. Heights will hover near the advisory level through the weekend.

As the swell gradually begins to ease early next week, long-period forerunners from the next south-southwest swell are expected to arrive. Heights may briefly dip below the advisory level Monday night, but as the next swell fills in, surf will likely return to the advisory level Tuesday through mid-week as it peaks. A gradual downward trend is then expected through the second half of next week.

A combination of advisory-level surf this weekend and water levels hovering above predicted levels, could lead to some wave runup issues, with water sweeping across areas of beaches that typically remain dry. Water levels will steadily lower each day early next week as the next large south swell arrives.

The current small northwest swell will slowly lower through Saturday before fading on Sunday. A small north swell will likely produce surf near seasonal averages along north-facing shores from late Tuesday or Wednesday into Thursday.

Expect surf along east-facing shores to remain near seasonal averages today, then gradually decline through early next week as trade winds ease. A slight increase is possible Tuesday and Wednesday, due to a combination of rebuilding trade winds and a wrapping north swell.

 

Free Photos | [Hawaii] Oahu | Lanikai Beach


World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity


>>> Here’s a link to the latest Pacific Disaster Center’s Weather Wall


>>> Atlantic Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

>>> Caribbean Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

>>> Gulf of America: There are no active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

>>> Eastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the western portion of the East Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…70 percent

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

 

>>> Central Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclones

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will begin on June 1, 2026.

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

 

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Jangmi)…is located approximately 638 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp0626.gif

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/06W_291200sair.jpg

 

>>> Southwest Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s the link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)



Interesting:  Longer Droughts and Changes in Rainfall Are Already Occurring in the Amazon, Research Indicates

According to two recently published studies led by scientists from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the Brazilian Amazon is already beginning to experience scenarios previously projected for the coming decades, including longer dry seasons and changes in rainfall patterns. Without integrated policies and initiatives to combat climate change, the situation could rapidly intensify, posing risks to biodiversity, the replenishment of natural water reservoirs, and the functioning of the forest.

The studies, which are based on climate models that incorporate regional dynamics, also serve as a warning for this year and next, as there is the possibility of a “super El Niño.” This phenomenon is characterized by the warming of the Pacific Ocean in the equatorial region. In its most intense form, it can raise temperatures by more than 2 °C above average, causing major changes in atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns on a global scale.

One of the studies indicates that the dry season in the Amazon is lengthening from four to six months, with a water deficit exceeding -150 millimeters (mm) during that period. The article, published in the International Journal of Climatology, points to greater climate instability, more extreme events outside seasonal patterns, and increased forest degradation associated with fire.

Another study, which appears in the March issue of Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation, analyzes the drought recorded in the Amazon between 2023 and 2024, during which Brazil was heavily affected by El Niño. The findings reveal a 9% increase in burned areas and a 19% increase in forest degradation alerts, with up to 4.2 million hectares impacted by fire at the peak of the drought. These results demonstrate that the cycle of drought, fire, and degradation is intensifying and reducing the ability of the ecosystem to recover.

Read More: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo