The latest update to this website was at 725pm Saturday evening (HST)

 

Here are the highest temperatures Saturday afternoon…and the lowest Saturday morning:

85 / 72  Lihue AP, Kauai
89 / 76  Honolulu AP, Oahu
86 / 74  Molokai AP, Molokai
89 / 74  Kahului AP, Maui
87 / 74  Kona AP, Big Island
84 / 69  Hilo AP, Big Island

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands as of Saturday evening:

1.02  Kilohana, Kauai
0.36  St. Stephens, Oahu
0.09  Kamalo, Molokai
0.01  Lanai AP, Lanai
0.72  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.54  Mountain View, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) as of Saturday evening:

28  Port Allen, Kauai
27  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
24  Molokai AP, Molokai
30  Lanai 1, Lanai
33  Kahului AP, Maui
28  Pali 2, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (~13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

 

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_gwdisk11_1070_100.jpg

Big Blue…click twice for largest version

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES17/ABI/SECTOR/tpw/13/GOES17-TPW-13-900x540.gif 

Thunderstorms south of Hawaii…an upper low just north
(click for larger version)


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES17/ABI/SECTOR/hi/GEOCOLOR/GOES17-HI-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

Variable clouds across the state

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES17/ABI/SECTOR/hi/13/GOES17-HI-13-600x600.gif

Low clouds being carried our way on the trade wind flow…high clouds to the north

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/HAWAII_loop.gif

Localized showers…a few are heavy

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Kauai_VIS_loop.gif

Kauai and Oahu (Satellite)

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKI_loop.gif

Kauai and Oahu (Radar)

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Oahu-Maui_VIS_loop.gif

Oahu and Maui County (Satellite)

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHMO_loop.gif

Oahu and Maui County (Radar)

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/satellite/Hawaii_VIS_loop.gif

 Maui, Kahoolawe, Lanai, and the Big Island (Satellite)

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHKM_loop.gif

Maui County and the Big Island (Radar)

 

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/PHWA_loop.gif

Big Island (Radar)

 

Model showing precipitation through 8-days (you can slow this animation down)

 

https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/hfo.png

Please open this link to see details on any current Watches, Warnings and Advisories noted above

 

https://www.weather.gov/images/hfo/graphics/pmsl.gif

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Glenn’s Saturday comments:  I’m home here in upper Kula, Maui, I hope you have a great Saturday wherever you happen to be spending it.

451am, it’s clear to partly cloudy early this morning…the low temperature here at my Kula weather tower was 55 degrees.

905am, most of the clouds here in Maui County are over on the windward side, leaving mostly clear skies here in upper Kula.

5pm, today is the last full day of summer…as autumn begins early Sunday morning.

540pm, there’s some interesting clouds around early this evening, on all three levels of the atmosphere…low, medium, and high. The one’s catching my eye though, are the towering cumulus clouds, not rising into the cumulonimbus levels (thunderstorms…at least not yet) however. It should be a good sunset, as some of these clouds c0uld like up a bright orange/pink.

 

Hawaii’s Broad Brush Weather Overview:  Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will ease for Sunday and Monday, as the surface ridge to the north briefly weakens. Rainfall will favor windward and mountain locations, but a few showers, some heavy, may develop across leeward areas as a disturbance aloft moves overhead. Breezy trades and more stable conditions are expected to return on Tuesday.

Hawaii’s Weather Details:  A moderate to locally breezy trade wind flow will begin to ease and destabilize tonight. A surface ridge sitting nearly 1,000 miles to the north is driving the trades, which have stubbornly remained breezy today. The winds should begin to gradually fall off this evening, as the ridge starts to weaken as drift southward.

An upper-level low centered a couple hundred miles north of Kauai has so far had minimal effect on local weather, aside from some thin high clouds, but as the low aloft digs southward tonight, the inversion will lift and weaken. As a result, mainly windward showers should become a bit heavier than the past few days, and a narrow and diffuse band of moisture in the trades will likely bring higher shower coverage from Maui to Oahu overnight.

Trade winds will drop a notch, and showers will likely be heavier Sunday and Monday. The surface ridge to the north will erode, causing trades to decline to moderate strength. Meanwhile, the upper-level low will stall over the western end of the island chain, and significantly weakening the low-level inversion.

The GFS and ECMWF models show a lack of organized low-level moisture in the trade wind flow, which suggests that a general increase in shower activity is unlikely. However, showers that do develop could be locally heavy.

A stronger and more stable trade wind flow is expected by mid-week. The locally breezy trades will be generated by a tighter pressure gradient between the strengthening low-level ridge to the north, and a pair of tropical disturbances passing by several hundred miles south of the islands. The upper-level low fill and drift away to the west, and a ridge aloft building in from the east will bring stability.

The models differ on timing, but show a pocket of moisture in the building trades passing over the islands late Monday and Tuesday. This will likely be too late for enhanced rainfall, and is expected to produce typical windward showers. Through the rest of the work week, we’ll have to monitor areas of tropical moisture that could clip the Big Island, although look for typical windward rainfall for most islands.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Vog map animation

Hawaii’s Marine Environment:  A high pressure ridge far north of Hawaii will keep fresh to strong easterly trade winds blowing. A cold frontal system passing through the far northern Central Pacific basin will weaken the ridge Sunday through Monday, briefly easing trade wind speeds into the gentle to moderate range.

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. This SCA will likely lapse on Sunday and Monday as the trade winds briefly weaken. Fresh to strong trade winds should return by Tuesday of next week, and the trades may approach SCA thresholds for our typical windier waters over the same eastern islands.

Surf along north and west facing shores will trend up beginning next Tuesday, in response to a gale racing eastward across the Date Line near the Aleutian Islands this weekend, then into the Gulf of Alaska early next week. Guidance shows this northwest swell peaking locally Tuesday night into Wednesday out of the northwest, then fading Thursday into Friday, as it shifts out of a more north-northwest direction.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through this weekend, with mainly a mix of background southwest and southeast swells moving through. An upward trend is possible Tuesday through mid-week, due to a slightly larger southwest swell arriving.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small and choppy, then decrease Sunday into next week as the trades lower locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific.

 

                           Maui's Magnificent South (west) Beaches – Summer Setting

 

 

World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Atlantic Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

>>> Central Subtropical Atlantic

Invest 96L

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda continues to produce showers and thunderstorms north of its center. Although environmental conditions are not very favorable for development, a short-lived tropical depression can not be ruled out if showers and thunderstorms become better organized while the system moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

>>> Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa over the next few days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent

Caribbean Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclone

>>> Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

Gulf of Mexico: There are no active tropical cyclone

Northeastern Pacific: There are no active tropical cyclone

>>> Offshore of Southern Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system while it meanders offshore the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week when the system begins to move slowly eastward or northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

>>> Central Portion of the East Pacific:

An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly eastward or northeastward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

North Central Pacific:  There are no active tropical cyclone

>>> Approximately 1150 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located far southeast of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, while conditions aloft have produced increased outflow. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form as it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. By midweek, conditions will become gradually less conducive for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

Here’s the link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Northwest Pacific Ocean: 

Tropical cyclone 15W (Pulasan), is located approximately 32 NM south-southwest of Busan, South Korea – Final Warning

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1524.gif

Tropical cyclone 17W, is located approximately 93 NM west of Taipei, Taiwan

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1724.gif

Southwest Pacific Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Ocean:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Arabian Sea:  There are no active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

>>> Here’s a link to the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Weather Wall website

 

Interesting:  A New Forecasting Model Based on Gene Activity Predicts When Japan’s Cherry Buds Awake From Dormancy

Climate change is impacting when Japan’s iconic cherry blossoms flower. A new gene-based model could provide more accurate predictions.

Japan in spring is famous for its cherry blossoms, or sakura, which begin flowering in the southern region of Kyushu and blaze upwards to the remote north of Hokkaido. The most abundant cherry tree cultivar, Somei Yoshino, is the iconic symbol of spring, as the cloned trees flower simultaneously at each site, creating a fleeting explosion of white-pink blossom that enraptures locals and tourists alike.

The flowering forecasts of Somei Yoshino are poured over for months before flowering, as visitors plan their trips and locals organize festivals and celebrations. However, due to climate change, the flowering times of these cherry trees are shifting and becoming harder to predict.

Now, researchers from Kyushu University and the Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute have developed a model that uses gene activity to predict when Somei Yoshino cherry tree buds awake from dormancy. Their findings, published September 19 in the journal Plants, People, Planet, could not only help improve the accuracy of flowering forecasts, but also highlight the potential of climate change to threaten flowering in Japan’s southern region.

Before cherry trees can flower, the buds must pass through two dormancy phases, endodormancy and ecodormancy. A period of sufficiently cool temperatures over winter is needed to break endodormancy, while transitioning out of ecodormancy requires an input of heat in spring.

Read more at Kyushu University

Image: Cherry blossoms of Somei Yoshino at Ito Campus, Kyushu University