Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday…along with the low temperatures Thursday:

83 – 77  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 79  Honolulu, Oahu
85 – 75  Molokai AP
88 – 77  Kahului AP, Maui
87 – 77  Kailua Kona
84 – 75  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Thursday evening:

0.29  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.12  Hakipuu Mauka, Oahu
0.04  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
 0.00  Kahoolawe
0.61  Puu Kukui, Maui
1.14  Honaunau, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Thursday evening:

18  Poipu, Kauai
30  Kuaokala, Oahu
23  Molokai
28  Lanai
32  Kahoolawe
27  Maalaea Bay, Maui
35  Waikoloa, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.


Aloha Paragraphs


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/avn-animated.gif
  Hurricane Miriam remains active well east-southeast of Hawaii, and will likely veer to the north when it reaches within about 950+ miles to our east-southeast / Hurricane (Norman) remains active as well, we’ll have to keep a close eye on this system…as the forecast track brings it towards Hawaii as a weakening storm (click images to enlarge)

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HPIR.JPG

Hurricanes Miriam in the central Pacific…and Norman in the eastern Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tc_graphics/2018/graphics/EP152018_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind_21.png

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP16/refresh/EP162018_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/123152_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/ir4.jpg
Hurricane Miriam is spinning east-southeast of the islands


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/hi/ir4.jpg
Clear to partly cloudy…cloudy areas windward and mountains

 

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/State_VIS_loop.gif
Low clouds arriving on the trade winds

 

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/hawaii.gif
Showers locally and offshore
 Looping image

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: A relatively dry and stable weather pattern should hold into the weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain locations. Trades will steadily diminish over the weekend, then increase again into the moderate to strong levels Tuesday through mid-week. Increasing moisture combined with increasing trades next week…may lead to more widespread trade showers over the state.

Details: The models support a drier and more stable trade wind pattern holding over the state, with high pressure remaining anchored to the north. Rainfall coverage will be limited across the state, with minimal accumulations expected for the most part. The best chance for trade showers will mainly occur during the late night and early morning hours…carried our way on the active trade wind flow.

Looking Ahead: As we we push into the weekend, the trades will trend down into the light to moderate range, which may be enough for land and sea breeze conditions to occur. It appears that a slight increase in moisture will arrive Tuesday. This increase in moisture combined with moderate trades steadily filling back in, will support a return of a more typical trade shower pattern by mid-week.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website

Marine Environmental Conditions: A strong high far north of the area will move north slowly and weaken. The high will produce moderate to strong winds over the coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in place through tonight for the windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. The winds will gradually subside as the high weakens, with winds dropping below the SCA threshold Friday. Winds will strengthen again early next week as a new high forms far north of the area, and Miriam approaches from the east. Winds are expected to reach SCA levels around the Big Island and Maui by next Tuesday.

Surf will remain small along all shores. Swells from Hurricane Miriam will build along the southeast side of the Big Island starting Friday. The Big Island will block these swells from reaching the smaller islands until the cyclone moves farther north. During the second half of the week swells from Hurricane Norman may reach the area.



World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering Potential Tropical Cyclone 06L in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including Hurricane 15E (Miriam), Hurricane 16E (Norman), and Tropical Cyclone 25W (Jebi)


>>> Atlantic Ocean: 

Potential Tropical Cyclone 06L remains active, and will eventually become a tropical storm…and then possibly a hurricane

According to the NHC…The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph, and this motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected to continue for the next three to four days. On the forecast track, disturbance is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands as a tropical storm later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today or Saturday. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone later today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

1.) Disorganized cloudiness and showers from Hispaniola eastward to the Leeward Islands and the adjacent waters are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This activity is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward enhancing the rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Florida into early next week. Strong upper-level winds will prevent any development of this system during the next 2 to 3 days, but environmental conditions could become less hostile when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane 16E (Norman) remains active…and is a Category 4 with some additional strengthening expected

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this Category 4 hurricane

According to the NHC…Norman is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph. A turn toward the west and west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected over the weekend and into next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, however, Norman is expected to remain a powerful hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

>>> Central Pacific: 

Hurricane 15E (Miriam) remains active…is moving over the central Pacific waters

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this Category 1 hurricane


According to the CPHC…Miriam is moving toward the north near 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through Friday night with a slight increase in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected Saturday with this motion continuing through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast tonight and Friday, with rapid weakening expected Friday night and Saturday. Miriam is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles.

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 25W (Jebi)

JTWC textual advisory
JTWC graphical track map

>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

 

Interesting: Wildfires: Causes, Costs & Containment – Wildfires burn millions of acres every year, leaving death and destruction in their wake. While natural causes (and climate change) play a part, nearly all wildfires are caused by people. Also, the number of wildfires has increased in recent years, and they are burning longer.

Definition

The National Park Service uses several terms to describe fires.

  • A wildland fire is the overarching term describing any non-structure fire that occurs in vegetation and natural fuels. (Non-structure fires involve residential, commercial or industrial buildings.)
  • A prescribed fire is a planned fire intentionally set by park managers to meet management objectives.
  • A wildfire is an unplanned fire sparked by natural causes, by human ignition or by an escaped prescribed fire.

U.S. wildfire losses during the past 10 years have totaled $5.1 billion, according to Verisk Analytics, a data-analytics provider that serves the insurance industry. About 4.5 million U.S. homes are at high or extreme risk of wildfires.

Size

In California, the Mendocino Complex Fire has become the state’s largest wildfire in modern history, according to the Los Angeles Times. As of late August, the fire had burned 283,800 acres. It has also destroyed around 170 homes and other structures. Four out of California’s five largest wildfires have occurred since 2012.

The biggest wildfire in history, however, occurred in Russia in 2003. The Siberian Taiga Fires burned 47 million acres, according to World Atlas. The second largest wildfire was in Canada, in 2014. The Northwest Territories Fires ended up charring 8.4 million acres.

Causes

Wildfires are on the rise, according to a 2006 study published in the journal Science. The authors compared the frequency and duration of fires between two periods. Between 1986 and 2003, wildfires occurred nearly four times as often, lasted about five times as long and burned more than six times the land area, compared with the period between 1970 and 1986. The change in frequency was “strongly” associated with regional spring and summer temperatures.

Discussions about the causes of wildfires often focus on whether land-use management practices or climate change is the primary cause. The authors of the Science study investigated 34 years of western U.S. wildfire history together with data on the hydroclimatic factors (how water affected the areas) to determine where the largest increases in wildfires have occurred and to evaluate how recent climatic trends may have been important causal factors.

They concluded that while land-use history and climate are often portrayed as competing factors, actually they may be complementary explanations in some cases. Past land uses — including allowing the accumulation of biomass — have probably made some forests more sensitive to changes in climate because more fuel is available. “Hence, an increased incidence of large, high severity fires may be due to a combination of extreme droughts and overabundant fuels in some forests,” the authors wrote.

Over the long haul, though, climate may still be the primary driver of wildfire risks, they wrote. On a decadal scale, the amount of moisture shapes the character of the vegetation (allowing species that are more resistant to drought to thrive, for example, but making them less resistant to climate variability). On shorter time scales, climate variability affects the flammability of live and dead vegetation.

The human factor

While drought, heat and wind create the perfect conditions for a wildfire, most fires don’t happen spontaneously. Lightning is a common natural igniter. In 2017, lightning set off nearly 8,000 wildfires, which burned 5.2 million acres in the United States, according to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC).

Most blazes are caused by humans, not lightning, though. According to the NIFC, there were 63,546 human-caused wildfires in 2017. About 4.8 million acres were burned.

There are many ways these fires start. For example:

  • A glass bottle thrown on the side of the road magnifies a ray of sunlight, igniting grass around it.
  • Kids playing with matches inadvertently start a fire.
  • A campfire is not properly extinguished and spreads.
  • Sparks from a train ignite grass around the tracks.
  • A controlled burn gets out of control.
  • Fireworks set a nearby tree on fire.
  • A cigarette isn’t put out and catches a patch of dry grass on fire.