Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / July 16-17, 2018

Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday…along with the low temperatures Monday:

m  – 76  Lihue, Kauai
89 – 78  Honolulu, Oahu
89 – 76  Molokai AP
91 – 71  Kahului AP, Maui
90 – 76  Kailua Kona
86 – 73  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Monday evening:

2.30  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.22  Palolo Fire Station, Oahu
0.03  Molokai
0.05  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.03  Puu Kukui, Maui
0.10  Honaunau, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Monday evening:

29  Port Allen, Kauai
27  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
33  Molokai
31  Lanai
39  Kahoolawe
38  Kahului AP, Maui
36  Waikoloa, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

A tropical disturbance east-southeast…Here’s what the computer models are showing
(click to enlarge)

Close-up of Invest 91C

Thunderstorms north, west, southwest and southeast

Clear to partly cloudy, cloudy areas locally…high clouds just west

Showers locally and offshore
Looping image

 

Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview: High pressure far to the north of the islands will continue to produce moderate trade winds across the area through this week, into next weekend. Clouds and scattered showers will tend to favor windward and mountain areas, with just isolated showers possible over some leeward spots. A trough passing south of the state Wednesday will produce increased showers along windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui…with a drier trade wind pattern prevailing thereafter through Saturday.

Details: A high pressure ridge will remain parked far north of islands through this work week…into next weekend. Look for a decrease in shower activity, as a building high pressure ridge aloft produces more subsidence and stability over the islands. The trade wind subsidence inversion will range from 5,000 to 7,000 feet over the next 2-days, keeping scattered showers along windward and mountain slopes, with only a few showers possible over leeward areas.

By mid-week, a weak disturbance in the deep tropics passing south of the islands, will push higher moisture amounts up into the eastern half of the state, with enhanced windward showers forecast over the Big Island and Maui. Otherwise, a drier and more stable trade wind pattern will prevail with scattered showers forecast along windward and mountain slopes…with isolated showers possible over leeward areas from Thursday through Saturday.

Looking Ahead: During the next 3-7 days, the deep tropics southeast of the islands will become more active, with several disturbances developing. These troughs may bring periods of increased moisture up into the island trade wind flow, as they drift westward, resulting in periods of rainfall mainly along windward slopes. These higher moisture amounts will reach the southeastern half of the state more easily, suggesting that both Hawaii and Maui Counties will have the best chance for enhanced shower activity.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website

Marine Environmental Conditions: Trade winds will produce surf mainly in the moderate range along the east facing shores this week. The strengthening trades at mid-week will bump up the surf to near advisory level for the east facing shores. The current south-southwest swell will maintain small to moderate surf along the south and west facing shores. This swell will slowly lower tonight. A small to moderate south swell with a similar size is due Wednesday night. A south swell, will arrive over the upcoming weekend…resulting near advisory level surf for the south facing shores.

A slight chance of thunderstorms remains across the northern offshore waters through tonight, due to the presence of an upper level trough. The low pressure area passing south of the islands may bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the far southern offshore waters around mid-week.

World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

 

Here’s the Monday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the Monday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Pacific and Indian Oceans, including Tropical Cyclone 11W (Son-tinh), and tropical disturbances, being referred as Invest 93W, 94W and Invest 99E…and Invest 91C in the central Pacific

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) There’s a tropical disturbance…with a low chance of developing

According to the NHC…Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has changed today. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development over the next few days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

1.) There’s a tropical disturbance, being referred to as Invest 91C…with a medium chance of developing

Here’s what the computer models are showing for this disturbance

According to the NHC…Showers and thunderstorms in association with a low pressure system located about 950 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii have become less organized this afternoon. Environmental conditions will become increasingly less conducive for development as wind shear increases and the system continues to track westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: