Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / July 4-5, 2018

Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Wednesday…along with the low temperatures Wednesday:

83 – 75  Lihue, Kauai
88 – 75  Honolulu, Oahu
89 – 76  Molokai AP
90 – 74  Kahului AP, Maui
86 – 73  Kailua Kona
85 – 71  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Wednesday evening:

1.43  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.16  Kamananui Stream, Oahu
0.00  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.01  Kahoolawe
0.01  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.50  Kona AP, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Wednesday evening:

25  Port Allen, Kauai
32  Kuaokala, Oahu
28  Molokai
29  Lanai
38  Kahoolawe
32  Kahului AP, Maui
32  South Point, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Tropical Storm 07E (Fabio) remains active in the eastern Pacific and is weakening, he won’t be a threat to the Hawaiian Islands…although may eventually bring some showers our way (click to enlarge)

High clouds southwest…moving over the state (Good sunrise this morning)

Partly to mostly cloudy…although with some clear areas too

Showers locally and offshore
Looping image

Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

Broad Brush Overview: The current active trade wind pattern over the state, associated with a strong high pressure system well to the north, will continue through the weekend…into early next week. Clouds and showers will focus their efforts over windward and mountain locations. An increase in shower coverage will be possible late Thursday through the weekend, in association with the remnant moisture from former tropical cyclone Emilia.

Details: The models show stable conditions with breezy trades holding firm, as strong high pressure remains positioned to the north. Drier air, currently located east of the state, is expected to slowly arrive, as the upper low to the north-northwest, and the area of higher moisture around Kauai shifts westward. Clouds and showers that develop will favor windward and mountain locations…especially during the late night and early morning hours.

Looking Ahead: Models depict a large area of increased moisture moving through the islands, from the left over moisture of Emilia Thursday night into Friday. The pressure gradient between this remnant feature (weak trough) and strong high pressure to the north, may cause the trades to strengthen. Winds could near the wind advisory threshold for some of the typically windier locations Friday through Friday night…around the peak.

Although showers will favor windward and mountain locations, some will spill over into leeward areas…due to the increasing trades and higher moisture expected to move through. Trades should trend back down slightly by the end of the weekend into early next week, as high pressure to the north weakens and the local gradient relaxes. The remnant moisture from now weakening hurricane Fabio, may bring an increase in showers with time.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map / Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation / Here’s the Vog Information website

Marine Environmental Conditions: A strong high pressure far north of the islands will drift south and weaken slightly over the weekend. The associated pressure gradient will support locally strong trade winds. Although a surge in trade wind speeds Thursday into Friday as a low-level trough (remnants of Emilia) tightens the gradient…as it passes near the islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island has been extended into Saturday.

The current south swell is expected to gradually decrease, with another increase in south swell activity is expected Thursday, with a peak on Friday. Peak swell heights along south facing shores is expected to approach, although remain below advisory levels. As trade winds increase later in the week, so will wind swell waves, leading to increased surf along the windward shores. An Easterly swell from Hurricane Fabio in the eastern Pacific is forecast to arrive late in the week through the weekend. This swell is expected to bring high surf to the windward shores Thursday…potentially continuing through the weekend.

World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

Here’s the Wednesday Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering Tropical Storm 07E (Fabio), Tropical Storm 09W (Prapiroon) along with Tropical Storm 10W (Maria)

>>> Atlantic Ocean:  

1.) According to the NHC, Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles to the south and southwest of Bermuda are associated with a weak trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system, and a tropical depression could form before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States. The disturbance is then forecast to interact with a frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

2.) Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure and a tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better organized. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. By the weekend, however, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development when the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific: 

Tropical Storm 07E (Fabio)

Here’s a looping satellite image of the eastern Pacific and south of Mexico

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean: