Hawaiian Islands Weather Details & Aloha Paragraphs / June 10-11, 2018

Air Temperatures – The following high temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday…along with the low temperatures Sunday:

83 – 73  Lihue, Kauai
87 – 76  Honolulu, Oahu
86 – 74  Molokai AP
87 – 73  Kahului AP, Maui
84 – 76  Kailua Kona
83 – 72  Hilo AP, Hawaii

Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands Sunday evening:

2.02  Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.22  Kahana, Oahu
0.05  Molokai
0.00  Lanai
0.00  Kahoolawe
0.05  West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.56  Kawainui Stream, Big Island

The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph) Sunday evening:

27  Port Allen, Kauai
31  Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
31  Molokai
36  Lanai
42  Kahoolawe
33  Maalaea Bay, Maui
36  Waikoloa, Big Island

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of our tallest mountain Mauna Kea (nearly 13,800 feet high) on the Big Island of Hawaii. Here’s the webcam for the 10,000+ feet high Haleakala Crater on Maui. These webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands, and at night whenever there’s a big moon shining down. Also, at night you will be able to see the stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

Tropical Storm Aletta…and Hurricane Bud in the eastern Pacific (click to enlarge)

Deep clouds just west of the state…high cirrus over Kauai

Partly cloudy…along with clear and cloudy areas locally

Showers locally and offshore – Looping image

 

Here’s the latest Vog Forecast Animation

Here’s the Vog Information website

Special Weather Statement…PERIODS OF VOLCANIC EMISSIONS ARE LIKELY FROM KILAUEA VOLCANO AND A VENT ALONG THE EAST RIFT ZONE…

Web cams indicate occasional small bursts of volcanic ash continue to emanate from Halemaumau Crater. Low level trade winds will push ash toward the southwest, and any ash fallout will likely occur over the Kau District and Highway 11 southwest of the town of Volcano. This includes the communities of Pahala, Wood Valley, Naalehu and Ocean View.

With winds spreading ash in the same direction, repeated eruptions will lead to a heavier buildup of ash. In addition, any ash deposited over the last several days will likely be picked up by local winds, contributing to dusty conditions.

Avoid excessive exposure to ash which is an eye and respiratory irritant. Those with respiratory sensitivities should take extra precaution to minimize exposure.

Pele’s hair and other lightweight volcanic glass particles from a high fountaining fissure in Leilani Estates are being carried downwind. These volcanic particles can cause skin and eye irritation similar to volcanic ash, so avoid exposure. Pele’s hair can scratch glass and car finishes. Use plenty of water to rinse Pele’s hair off vehicles and avoid using windshield wipers.

Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels around Maui County and the Big Island

 

~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~

 

Broad Brush Overview:  A high pressure system remains in place well northeast of the islands, keeping our trade winds blowing through the middle of the new week ahead. Meanwhile, a weak upper level low edges over the western islands, with scattered showers forecast. Otherwise, typical trade showers are expected elsewhere, with clouds and showers favoring windward coasts and slopes as usual. The high pressure ridge north of the islands will likely weaken Thursday onward…with lighter and more variable winds forecast during the second half of the new week.

Details: A surface high remains active to the northeast, with an associated ridge extending westward, into the area to our north. An upper level ridge over the state will produce a stable atmosphere, and in turn limit any heavy shower activity through this Kamehameha holiday weekend…with a few exceptions possible around Kauai. An upper level trough will linger just north of the state through the first half of the week. An upper level low is located west of Oahu drifting east towards Kauai. Look for moderate to locally strong trade winds to continue across the Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday.

Looking Ahead: Models show the upper trough drifting closer to the islands with time, which will prompt deeper clouds and likely increasing shower coverage across the state. The long range forecast shows a series of frontal low pressure systems passing through the Central Pacific Thursday and Friday…which will weaken the high pressure ridge north of the islands. This weakening ridge to the north will likely cause our trade winds to decrease, with a weak trade wind and leeward sea breeze pattern developing into the weekend.

Wind directions will become more variable in this weather pattern, with cloud and shower development trending towards island interior sections each day…and diminishing overnight. Maintaining a watch on our tropical cyclone activity here in the central Pacific, it appears that any areas of disturbed weather will remain absent through the next 5-days at least. Further afield, we see Tropical Storm 02E (Aletta) and Hurricane 03E (Bud) in the eastern Pacific. None of the models show these storms making their way towards Hawaii.

Here’s a near real-time Wind Profile of the Pacific Ocean – along with a Closer View of the islands / Here’s the latest Weather Map

Marine Environmental Conditions: Surface high pressure far northeast of the islands will maintain locally strong trade winds for the next several days. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through Monday afternoon for the typically windier waters south of the Big Island and some of the waters around Maui County.

An above normal south swell has resulted in a High Surf Advisory for the south facing shores of most islands. Although this swell should be on the decline, a reinforcing south swell of a slightly smaller size, will maintain advisory level surf.  Another south swell is expected to spread across the island waters late Friday into next weekend.

Persistent trade winds will produce moderate size surf for the east facing beaches, for the next couple of days before trending down…resulting in smaller surf around mid-week. A small northwest swell will continue with the potential for a slightly larger northwest swell toward the end of the week.

World-wide Tropical Cyclone Activity

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maliksi), Tropical Storm 02E (Aletta), and Hurricane 03E (Bud)

Here’s the latest Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) Weather Wall Presentation covering the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico

 

>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Eastern Pacific:

Tropical Cyclone 02E (Aletta)

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Tropical Cyclone 03E (Bud)

NHC texual advisory
NHC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

Here’s a looping satellite image of the eastern Pacific and south of Mexico

Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.

Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

>>> Northwest Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maliksi)

JTWC textual Warning
JTWC graphical track map
NOAA satellite image

>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones

Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)


Interesting: Why Are Suicide Rates Rising? – The recent deaths of Anthony Bourdain and Kate Spade have raised the question: Why is suicide becoming more common? And what can be done to reverse the trends?

While researchers have proposed everything from social isolation to bullying as the reason, it’s still a mystery why rates are rising. Experts do, however, recommend approaches that could help reduce the rates.

What’s behind the rise?

A report, released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 7, showed that rates of death by suicide in the United States have risen by roughly 25 percent in the last couple decades.

Though the reasons for that increase are not completely clear, in past research, experts have pointed to an increased sense of isolation among Americans, as well economic factors and a rise in mental illness.

Other pointed to the rise of technology, which has replaced important face-to-face interactions (though some argue technology actually decreases loneliness.

But in the end, all of these explanations are speculative.

It’s very hard to make broad statements about suicide, said Dr. Katalin Szanto, a professor of psychiatry at the University of Pittsburgh, who has published widely on suicide prevention. For instance, it is now the second leading cause of death for people ages 15 to 24 in the U.S., and yet many researchers think aging Baby Boomers will be especially vulnerable to suicide in the coming years, Szanto said.

And previous CDC reports indicated that suicide in the U.S. is often connected to other forms of violence, such as bullying, sexual violence or child abuse, according to the most recent study. Yet rates of those forms of violence have not increased, and in possibly dropped, in the past two decades.

Likewise, it’s clear that if people can find help the first time that they consider suicide, they are more likely to recover and never make another attempt. And yet, people who have made an attempt once are much more likely to try again, Szanto said.

Stopping suicide

Stopping individual suicides is possible. For instance, in a 10-year study at the Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit, doctors and therapists employed several interventions that led to an 80-percent drop in suicide rates. (One such method involved asking depressed patients how they envisioned dying. Doctors then created systematic roadblocks to enacting that vision — by, for instance, asking patients to remove firearms from their houses and then following up to see if they actually did so).

However, knowing what drives suicide and having improved treatment options won’t help if people don’t reach out for help when they are at the their most hopeless, said Susan Lindau, a practicing therapist and adjunct professor at the University of Southern California who specializes in suicide.

One finding in the new CDC report is that more than half of the deaths happened among people who had not been diagnosed with mental illness. Men may be especially affected by this problem, Szanto said.

“We have this big problem, especially among men, that they have undiagnosed and obviously untreated mental health conditions.”  “Often the manifestation of depression is different in men than in women. We tend to be a little bit better in our clinical assessments to diagnose ‘typical’ depression in women.”

She said that women tend to be better at seeking help in the first place as well. And for the men who do seek help, the indicators are ill-defined, like propensity to violence or substance abuse, Szanto said.

Lindau said that people still won’t seek help if they perceive a stigma around depression and mental illness as a whole.

“It is very brave to be able to say, ‘I feel horrible and I need to reach out.’ Because you are revealing your vulnerabilities. Our culture does not really respect vulnerability,” Lindau said.

She added that people need to understand that depression and other mental illness are chronic diseases, just like diabetes or multiple sclerosis.

Lindau said she expects recent high-profile suicides to affect her private practice over the next few days, because patients will be thinking about it and, in worst-case scenarios, perhaps tempted to follow suit.

“It’s going to be pretty awful for them. But I confront it head on. I’m not going to be coy about it,” she said. “I’m not pretending it didn’t happen.”

For many people in crisis, she said, the most important thing is to just get through a 20-minute window when they are the most tempted to end their lives. If they can reach out to family or friends and get through that moment, the pain won’t disappear, but they have much better odds of coming through the other side and moving toward treatment and recovery, Lindau said.

If you or someone you know needs help, contact the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-TALK (8255).