Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures (F) were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday…along with the low temperatures Tuesday:
82 – 72 Lihue, Kauai
85 – 75 Honolulu, Oahu
83 – 73 Molokai AP
86 – 69 Kahului AP, Maui
88 – 78 Kailua Kona
83 – 72 Hilo AP, Hawaii
Here are the latest 24-hour precipitation totals (inches) for each of the islands…as of Tuesday evening:
4.93 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
2.47 Moanalua RG, Oahu
0.60 Puu Alii, Molokai
0.03 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
1.81 West Wailuaiki, Maui
0.70 Mountain View, Big Island
The following numbers represent the strongest wind gusts (mph)…as of Tuesday evening:
23 Port Allen, Kauai
35 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
27 Molokai
31 Lanai
30 Kahoolawe
28 Maalaea Bay, Maui
27 Kealakomo, Big Island
Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions.
Aloha Paragraphs
We can see Hurricane Blas far to the east-southeast of Hawaii
Hurricane Blas is a major category 3 storm
We see an incredible eye at the center of this very strong hurricane!
What the computer models are showing
Thunderstorms far southwest and southeast
High cirrus clouds moving over the state from the southwest – nice sunset this evening
Showers locally…generally over the ocean – Looping radar image
Small Craft Advisory…windiest coasts and channels Maui County and the Big Island
~~~ Hawaii Weather Narrative ~~~
The recent strong and gusty trade winds will become more moderate now through Friday…with some possible changes during the weekend. Here’s the latest weather map, showing a moderately strong, near 1034 millibar high pressure system in the area north of Hawaii. Our trade winds are expected to remain active through the end of this work week. I would expect winds to gust up to between 35-40 mph in those most windy locations through the next several days. There’s a chance that our trade winds could falter substantially, depending upon just where the circulation of former tropical cyclone Agatha goes, as it gets closer Sunday into next Monday…stay tuned.
Here’s a wind profile…of the offshore waters around the islands – with a closer view
Here’s the Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosol animated graphic – showing vog forecast
There will be some windward showers at times. As the trade winds will continue to be gusty, some of these showers will ride over into the leeward sections at times…on the smaller islands. This moisture will keep showery conditions alive, at least in an off and on manner. There’s a chance that a slug of tropical moisture may arrive on the trade winds as we get into the later part of the upcoming weekend. This moisture would be whatever is left of…now retired tropical cyclone Agatha. We may see the same thing happen further down the line, as leftover moisture from what will very likely be retired hurricane Blas, gets carried towards us on the trades later next week…stay tuned.
Tropical Cyclones in the northeastern Pacific: Hurricane Blas is a very strong system, coming in at a category 3 major hurricane. We’ll certainly need to keep an eye on Blas, although it should remain well away from our islands…before dissipating to our east and northeast. There should be a new storm spinning-up with time, which will become tropical storm, and then hurricane Celia. In sum, I don’t see any of these tropical cyclone’s causing problems for the Hawaiian Islands…at least in terms of winds. As a matter of fact, our winds may falter later this weekend into early next week briefly, as the leftover circulation from former TC Agatha…interrupts our trade wind flow then. We may see some showers and rising surf here in the islands later this week, and again next week. There’s more information about these tropical systems below.
Marine environment details: Locally strong trade winds warrant continuation of a small craft advisory (SCA) for the windier marine zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Latest guidance indicates little significant change in the strength of the high to the north, or the local pressure gradient for most of this week, so it’s likely that the SCA will need to be extended in time for the existing zones.
Small swells from the SW and SE will provide some surf along S facing shores into Thursday, with surf height below advisory criteria. A larger S swell is expected to arrive on Thursday and peak on Friday/Saturday, with peak surf heights near advisory levels along S facing shores of all islands. Latest observations from a buoy in American Samoa, indicates that wave heights associated with this swell are slightly larger than anticipated by wave models. This adds some confidence in the potential for advisory level surf along S facing shores of Hawaii in about 3-4 days.
Rapidly intensifying hurricane Blas is currently about 2400 miles E of the islands, and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows that Blas has become a major hurricane, before steadily weakening thereafter. While the NHC calls for Blas to be weakening to a post-tropical low about 1200 miles E of the islands this weekend, long-period E swells emanating from the cyclone are expected to arrive in Hawaiian waters. Significant uncertainty surrounds this forecast, but there is potential for high surf along E facing shores this weekend and early next week.
Hanalei Bay and Princeville…Kauai
Here on Maui – Early Tuesday morning is dawning clear to partly cloudy. Clouds will be arriving at times today, with showers along our windward sides. The air temperature was 54.6F degrees at 542am. Meanwhile, at about the same time, the Kahului airport was reporting clear skies, with a temperature of 73 degrees, while Hana was 73 as well, with Maalaea Bay showing 75…and the summit of the Haleakala Crater was reporting 46 degrees. / Late morning, clouds have increased across the island, with some muted sunshine in a few areas at best.
– Early afternoon, lots of clouds around, and here in upcountry Kula…there’s just begun a very light mist.
– Early evening, a mix of blue skies and cloudiness…although the clouds are winning out for sure. There are high and middle level clouds over us again now, so keep an eye out for a nice sunset…and then again for sunrise on Wednesday. Despite all the low clouds that hung around today, not much rain fell from them.
World-wide tropical cyclone activity –
>>> Atlantic Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
Here’s a satellite image of the Atlantic Ocean
>>> Caribbean Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days
>>> Gulf of Mexico: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a satellite image of the Caribbean Sea…and the Gulf of Mexico
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Blas remains active over the waters of the eastern Pacific. Here’s the NHC graphical track map, along with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
1.) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 525 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are showing some signs of organization. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while it moves westward at around 10 mph.
This tropical disturbance is being referred to as Invest 96E, here’s a satellite image…along with what the computer models are showing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
Here’s a wide satellite image that covers the entire area between Mexico, out through the central Pacific…to the International Dateline.
Here’s the link to the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
>>> Central Pacific: No active tropical cyclones
No tropical cyclones expected through the next 2-days
Here’s a link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
Tropical Cyclone 02W (Nepartak) remains active in the western Pacific Ocean, having strengthened into a very strong super typhoon…at it heads towards Taiwan. Here’s a JTWC graphical track map, with a satellite image…and what the computer models are showing.
>>> South Pacific Ocean: No active tropical cyclones
>>> North and South Indian Oceans / Arabian Sea: No active tropical cyclones
Here’s a link to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
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Ben (Jamin) Jones Says:
Windyty shows a track of Celia getting potentially close to HI around 7/17. Of course this is a long way off, likely to change, etc. Still interesting…
https://www.windyty.com/?2016-07-17-00,19.503,-153.809,7
~~~ Hi Ben, interesting, as we’re doing now…we’ll be watching to see what happens in real time. Thanks for the link.
Aloha, Glenn
Sue Menning Says:
Hi Glenn, Can you tell me if the formation of Blas and possibly Celia represent a “normal”-type year or do you think we are facing another year of many tropical storms forming like last year’s El Nino affect. Is there typically an El Nino for more than one year? Don’t laugh, you can tell how weather-wise I am (ha ha). Thank goodness for folks like you.
~~~ Hi Sue, good to hear from you, and I’m far from laughing…as your question is very reasonable.
I don’t see anything too abnormal so far this hurricane season. The thing that is quite interesting though, is that Agatha took a track, and then Blas is taking a very similar path very close to Agatha’s track…and when Celia forms, the models have it following slightly south, although more or less very near the Agatha and Blas tracks.
El Nino is going away, which will be followed by what’s called La Nino. This simply means that the warm ocean waters of El Nino, which promoted an extremely active hurricane season here last year in the central Pacific…while La Nina will bring cooler waters our way.
This suggests that this hurricane season will be much more normal than last years – in other words, less active. However, as the National Weather Service is fond of saying…”It only takes One”.
Nonetheless, I will be watching like a hawk, like I mentioned to Christian below. That’s my job, to keep you informed about everything weather related…as much as I can.
I hope this helps, and thanks for your vote of confidence in my knowledge of hurricanes and such!
Aloha, Glenn
Christian Says:
Please note, the windy model shows hurricane blas going over the Big Isle next week
~~~ Hi Christian, thanks for your comment. I don’t see any of the models bringing Blas near the Hawaiian Islands, much less right over the state.
However, I’ll certainly be watching Blas like a hawk of course, and will let you/everyone…know if something suspicious takes place.
Aloha, Glenn