I will be on vacation from October 15th until November 10th, and then back updating this page starting November 11th. You can find the latest weather forecast for all places, on any of the islands…by clicking in the forecast section in the upper left hand margin of this page. There is more information about my travels below, along with an occasional note about what I’m up to while I’m away.
Aloha for now…Glenn.

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii: 

Lihue, Kauai – 
Honolulu, Oahu – 
Kaneohe, Oahu – 
Kahului, Maui – 
Hilo, Hawaii – 
Kailua-kona – 

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level, and on the highest mountains… :

Kahului, Maui –   
Molokai airport – 

Haleakala Crater    –    (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit –    (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of:

Weather Chart – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing the air pressure configurations for the entire Pacific Ocean.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with the Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image. 

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

     Aloha Paragraphs

Nice sunset at Poipu, Kauai

As noted above, I’ll be away on vacation October 15th through November 10th. It’s been a full year since I was away, other than a few short trips for business. This time I am going to northern California, specifically Marin County, just north of San Francisco first. I will be there for several days, before flying down to Long Beach, to visit my parents for just under a week.

I will fly back to San Francisco, then on to Marin County again, to join up with an old college friend. We will drive up to the north coast, to a rented property between Point Arena and Gualala. This house, right on the bluff, has an outdoor hot-tub, fireplace, and gorgeous views of the Pacific. We will have a great time exploring, hiking, wine tasting, and just luxuriating!

Then, I travel back down to Marin County, where I hook up with another old college friend. We will fly down to Todo Santos, on the west coast of southern Baja. This person owns several properties down there, and we will have a great time catching up, eating tortillas, and probably drinking a few Mexican beers. We have plans to do some surfing, a lot I hope, while we’re down south. This will be the first time that I’ve been in Mexico, in a very long time.

Then, it’s back to Marin County, where I will stay for the last 4-5 days of my 3+ week vacation. I plan on doing lots of walking around, enjoying the fall vegetation, and hopefully experience a Pacific cold front or two. My Marin County friend is an excellent cook, so that I’ll be eating well, and sampling several bottles of that famous wine in the area. I will fly back to Maui on November 10th, and begin updating all my webpages on the 11th.

By the way, when I have a computer available, and can find some time, I’ll write a few words along the way…which you will find below. I trust you will be well and fine in my absence. Aloha for now…Glenn.

October 17, 2008: Hi everyone, I’ve been on the mainland a couple of days now, with warm to very warm weather throughout northern California. High temperatures have been well up into the 80F’s, unlike what I normally expect this time of year. I’ve been staying north of San Francisco, in Marin County. My friend and I have enjoyed walking around the neighborhoods, and out along the salt marshes. This morning, Saturday October 18th, all of the sudden while out walking, the ocean winds brought coastal fog into this area, ending the Indian Summer reality in no uncertain terms!

We just went to the shopping center, bought coffee and pasteries, and sat and talked while checking out the folks who walked by…Marin County style. I take an airporter to the airport in San Francisco this afternoon, then fly on JetBlue airlines into Long Beach, where my parents will pick me up. That’s the latest information about my travels, as I’ve slowly blended from working 14 hour days…into the vacation mode. I’ll write again from Long Beach in a couple of days, be well…Glenn.

October 23, 2008: Hi again everyone, I’m just finishing up a six day stay at my parents house in Long Beach, California. We had such a good time relating, eating all our meals together, drinking coffee in the mornings, and finishing off our days having a glass of wine out in their patio at sunset. There were many, many high points, one of which, for my Mom especially, was the 2008 Women’s Conference, which was held in Long Beach the other day. I set her up watching on their computer, with the full-screen setting, which she loved. There were many impressive speakers, including: Maria Shriver; Condoleezza Rice; Warren Buffett; Bono; and Arnold Schwarzeneger among many others.

The Weather while I was here in Long Beach couldn’t have been any better, that is if you prefer hot, and dry weather. The high temperatures were in the 90F’s most days, cooling off into the 50 and 60’s at night. I started off my days walking with my Mom, followed by a nice long walk with my Dad. They are both 86 years old, and I am very proud of how healthy they both are! I fly back up to San Francisco this evening, with a good friend picking me up at the airport at about 930pm. We will head up to Marin County again, and likely spend the day Friday there. I will catch up with you at some point, as we head up to the coastal area south of Point Arena for five days. Be well until then everyone…Glenn.
 
October 29, 2008: Hi everyone, wow, I just got back from a great trip up the north coast of northern California. I went up there with a great friend, who I went to college with, who also happens to be a person who loves weather almost as much as I do! We headed north about five days ago, taking all the small roads off Highway 101, north of Marin County…through Sonoma into Mendecino County. We got up on the coast late in the afternoon, got the key to our awesome place, just south of Point Arena. It was near sunset, although there were no clouds in the sky, and just cool enough to jump into the hot tub after the sun went down.

It was one great adventure after another, from well before sunrise hot tubs, with talking and coffee each morning, leading into the rest of the days. We went hiking up rivers twice, where we had deep nature experiences, not seeing another soul. The sun was in an on and off manner, punctuated by heavy duty intrusions of gray fog and low clouds off the ocean. During one late afternoon beach adventure, I fell on some slippery rocks on an isolated stretch of coast…nothing serious fortunately! We ate fabulous food each day, some at fancy coastal spots, some simple sittings at this house where we stayed. It was truly amazing, and I’m left feeling a bit sad as my friend travels back to his college class, he is the teacher…and his fine family in the Sierra Nevada foothills. Early Thursday morning, another old college friend picks me up, and we fly down to southern Baja, for a surfing adventure…talk to you later when I get back.

November 8, 2008: Hi everyone, I recently got back from a great trip down to the southern portion of the Baja peninsula. I flew down there with a good friend from my old college days. He owns quite a bit of property in Todo Santos, San Francisco, and a nice property in west Sebastopol…Sonoma County. The focus for the trip centered around surfing, which we did everyday of our six day stay. I personally started off each day well before sunrise sitting outside watching the desert light up, with the local birds becoming more active as the light increased. I finished off each day with a jump in the ocean, followed by witnessing the sunset sipping on a cold Pacifico beer. The days included surfing, then breakfast at outdoor places, with a little of this and that leading up to dinner. We usually ended up at a little ice cream place, sitting outside enjoying the fading warmth of the day, while recounting our adventures of the day.

Speaking of temperatures, the first day we were there, the winds turned offshore, and the heat was remarkable! Many of the locals, who had lived there for a long time, exclaimed that it was the hottest day that they had ever experienced. As far as I could tell, the air temperature rose to 101F degrees! It was incredibly hot, the wind off the dry desert made it feel almost unbearable…I kept thinking that this is so unique. I just had to lay down under a ceiling fan, after taking a cold shower, and take it in. Looking back, it was actually very interesting and almost unbelievable. I met many, many nice people, too many actually to describe individually. There were two pyschologists in particular, both doctors, that we hung out with a lot. My friend from Sonoma County is a well known poet, along with his business dealings. I had a wonderful time in Mexico, and surfed well enough that I felt good about that too. 

I’m back in Marin County now, it’s Saturday morning, with a weak cold front bearing down. This will be a rather dry frontal system, but after a nice hike earlier, I’m looking forward to seeing my first drops of water falling from the sky, during my entire mainland vacation. The friend I am staying with is having several friends over to her house this evening, to celebrate the Obama win in the recent presidential contest. Sunday will likely find us taking another early hike followed by a hearty breakfast, lunch and dinner. I fly out from San Francisco Monday, and will return to Maui in the early evening hours. I have had a fabulous time, with the high points all centered around being with my Mom and Dad, and my long lasting friendship. I will begin to regularly update all my website pages starting November 11th. I look forward to getting back into my forecasting duties again soon. Speaking of such things, looks like a period of voggy weather will arrive starting by Thursday, leading to afternoon, interior upcountry showers for several days. I’ll be back on Maui again soon, be well until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.

October 13-14 2008

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Monday afternoon: 

Lihue, Kauai – 83
Honolulu, Oahu – 82
Kaneohe, Oahu – 83
Kahului, Maui – 87
Hilo, Hawaii – 83
Kailua-kona – 83

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level, and on the highest mountains…at 4 p.m. Monday afternoon:

Port Allen, Kauai – 86F 
Molokai airport – 74

Haleakala Crater    – 50  (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 41  (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Monday afternoon:

1.08 Lihue, Kauai
1.25 Maunawili, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.15 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.52 Keohole airport, Big Island

Weather Chart – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a 1034 millibar high pressure system far to the NE. At the same time we find a deep winter-like low far north, with its associated cold front swinging down southward towards Kauai. South to southeast breezes Monday and Tuesday, associated with a cold front stalling near Kauai.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with the Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image. 

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

  October full moon going down in the west
Photo Credit: flickr.com

Our local winds have become lighter Monday night from Oahu to Kauai, stronger near the Big Island…veering to the south to southeast into Tuesday as a cold front stalls near Kauai. A 1034 millibar high pressure center is evident on weather maps, to our north Monday evening. The high has a ridge extending southwest to a point southeast of Hawaii. A frontal boundary, to the north and northwest, is slowly sitting over Kauai and Niihau islands…which has swung our winds around to the southeast, or even south on the Kauai end of the chain. This suggests that there will be periods of volcanic haze carried across the island chain at times. The trade winds will return around mid-week, clearing the islands of vog, with improving air visibilities then.

A cold front has reached Kauai and Niihau, which has stalled near those two islands Monday afternoon, then begin to shift westward away from the state at some point Tuesday. We’ll find this cold front stretching down to near Kauai, where showers have increased, which may reach Oahu as well into Tuesday. At the same time, aiding the formation of locally heavy showers, we find the influence of an upper level low pressure system in our area. Here’s a satellite image showing the ragged leading edge of this frontal boundary punching southward into the tropics. The rest of the state will have southeast winds, with some pre-frontal, or upcountry showers along the leeward sides…which could be at times quite generous at times too. There is that chance of cloud plumes working their way from one island to the other, like happened over Oahu Monday afternoon. The trade winds will return around mid-week, with showers focused along the windward sides again then.

Monday is Columbus Day, when our favorably inclined weekend fair weather broke down…as a cold front has reached, and is stalling over Kauai. This frontal system has brought rain to Kauai, and to Oahu as well…some of which was locally heavy. The other islands won’t see the frontal precipitation itself, but will have prefrontal showers falling at times…some of which may be rather generous locally too. Here’s a looping satellite image, showing the low and its frontal boundary dropping down over Kauai. Thereafter, the trade winds will return, with just the usual windward biased showers during the second half of the week. As noted in one of the paragraphs above, we should see some form of volcanic emissions stretching up from the Big Island to Maui, or other parts of the island chain as well.

Skies got more and more cloudy during the day Monday, with some heavier showers breaking out near Oahu and Kauai. There were a few 1.00"+ rainfall amounts on those two islands, with some afternoon showers on the other islands too. The chance for showers will remain active, some of which could be locally heavy, through Tuesday. Looking out the window here in Kihei, just before I leave for the upcountry area of Kula, there are lots of dark gray clouds around…some which look to be dropping showers. When I arrived home in Kula, it has rained off and on for the last several hours, some of which have been down right heavy! ~~~ I’ll be back early Tuesday morning with the last new narrative before I leave to go on a three week+ vacation. I go to northern and southern California, to see friends and family, then down near the southern tip of Baja, California, for relaxation and hopefully some surfing! I’ll have more about this here soon. I hope you have a great Monday night wherever you happen to be spending it! By the way, I understand that Tuesday is the October full moon…that makes it a special day of the month, not to mention the last full day until I leave! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting:

Higher levels of pollution in Asia may affect the formation of clouds high in the Himalayas, perhaps disrupting monsoons and speeding a thaw of glaciers, according to a study on Monday. The report, by scientists in France and Italy, found microscopic particles in the air that can be seeds for water droplets at a Nepalese mountain observatory, the highest in the world at 5,079 metres (16,660 ft) above sea level. It was the first time scientists had observed such particles forming so high, far above those seen in previous studies from Europe and Japan. "We think it’s because there’s a lot of pollution in the valleys which rises and meets clean air masses higher up. This creates new particles," Karine Sellegri at the Universite Blaise Pascal in France, one of the authors, told Reuters. The study, in the U.S. journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, said the particles might come from smoke from people burning wood in Himalayan valleys.

Or some might have a natural origin, from vegetation. Still, the scientists pointed to wider risks of the cloud-forming mechanism. "Rising air pollution levels in South Asia will have worldwide environmental consequences," they wrote. "Transport of pollutants from the densely populated regions of India, Pakistan, China and Nepal to the Himalayas may lead to substantial radiative forcing (warming effect) in South Asia." In turn, that could affect the formation of monsoons, disrupt the regional climate and have "dramatic impacts on glacier retreat" in the Himalayas, they wrote. The U.N. Climate Panel said last year that Himalayan glaciers, which feed rivers on which hundreds of millions of people depend, could shrink to 100,000 square kms (38,610 sq miles) by 2030 from 500,000 now because of global warming. Sellegri added, however, that it was too early to know exactly what impact rising pollution would have in the Himalayas. "We need more modelling," she said.

Interesting2:

Colorado’s forests, already under siege from pine beetles, fire and mis-management, could fare worse with climate change. Federal stewards don’t want to see that happen. "Forests serve as a natural sponge that absorbs, stores and slowly releases water to the rivers," said Tony Dixon, regional deputy forester with the U.S. Forest Service. "If you have no forests, you have no rivers. They are like water towers and they are under siege." While most think of the Forest Service as a preservation effort, it began after a time when forests were in even worse shape, Dixon said. Mining, logging, grazing and fires had all but destroyed many of the lands initially put under federal protection. "The Western forests were not pristine," Dixon said. Today, about 22 percent of Colorado land is in national forests, providing 68 percent of the water that flows within and out of the state. Pine beetle damage to the forests is becoming more obvious each year, as hillsides turn red, then gray. Nights in the mountains are no longer cold enough to kill the bugs.

Interesting3: A state-of-the-art, solar powered version of the humble cycle-rickshaw promises to offer a solution to urban India’s traffic woes, chronic pollution and fossil fuel dependence, as well as an escape from backbreaking human toil. The "soleckshaw", unveiled this month in New Delhi, is a motorised cycle rickshaw that can be pedalled normally or run on a 36-volt solar battery. Developed by the state-run Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), prototypes are receiving a baptism of fire by being road-tested in Old Delhi’s Chandni Chowk area. One of the city’s oldest and busiest markets, dating back to the Moghul era, Chandni Chowk comprises a byzantine maze of narrow, winding streets, choked with buses, cars, scooters, cyclists and brave pedestrians. "The most important achievement will be improving the lot of rickshaw drivers," said Pradip Kumar Sarmah, head of the non-profit Centre for Rural Development.

"It will dignify the job and reduce the labour of pedalling. From rickshaw pullers, they will become rickshaw drivers," Sarmah said. India has an estimated eight million cycle-rickshaws. The makeover includes FM radios and powerpoints for charging mobile phones during rides. Gone are the flimsy metal and wooden frames that give the regular Delhi rickshaws a tacky, sometimes dubious look. The "soleckshaw," which has a top speed of 15 kilometres (9.3 miles) per hour, has a sturdier frame and sprung, foam seats for up to three people. The fully-charged solar battery will power the rickshaw for 50 to 70 kilometres (30 to 42 miles). Used batteries can be deposited at a centralised solar-powered charging station and replaced for a nominal fee. If the tests go well, the "soleckshaw" will be a key transport link between sporting venues at the 2010 Commonwealth Games in New Delhi.

Interesting4:

Beyond the howl of sled dogs echoing across this hilly coastal village is the thunderclap of ancient icebergs splitting apart, a deafening rumble you feel in your bones. There’s no mistaking its big, loud, and powerful boom, a sound that can work up to a crescendo like rolling thunder. Or be as sudden as a shotgun blast. Lifelong Greenland resident Karen Jessen Tannajik said people who live in Ilulissat — an Inuit word for icebergs — notice more about what’s been calved by the village’s nearby Sermeq Kujalleq glacier than sights and sounds. ‘Right now, they’re coming out so quick. There are not so many big ones, but many small ones,’ she said with almost a spiritual reverence as she talked about the village’s world-famous procession of icebergs. ‘When I am tired, I can watch them and feel them and smell them,’ she said, pausing for a big breath of air to help make her point. ‘It seems like we get our power from them.’

Interesting5:

New images from NASA’s Cassini spacecraft reveal a giant cyclone at Saturn’s north pole, and show that a similarly monstrous cyclone churning at Saturn’s south pole is powered by Earth-like storm patterns. The new-found cyclone at Saturn’s north pole is only visible in the near-infrared wavelengths because the north pole is in winter, thus in darkness to visible-light cameras. At these wavelengths, about seven times greater than light seen by the human eye, the clouds deep inside Saturn’s atmosphere are seen in silhouette against the background glow of Saturn’s internal heat. The entire north pole of Saturn is now mapped in detail in infrared, with features as small as 120 kilometers (75 miles) visible in the images.

Time-lapse movies of the clouds circling the north pole show the whirlpool-like cyclone there is rotating at 530 kilometers per hour (325 miles per hour), more than twice as fast as the highest winds measured in cyclonic features on Earth. This cyclone is surrounded by an odd, honeycombed-shaped hexagon, which itself does not seem to move while the clouds within it whip around at high speeds, also greater than 500 kilometers per hour (300 miles per hour). Oddly, neither the fast-moving clouds inside the hexagon nor this new cyclone seem to disrupt the six-sided hexagon.

Interesting6: The 2008 tornado season is on track to set a record for the number of tornadoes in the USA, according to National Weather Service data. Through July, 1,390 tornadoes were officially recorded in the first seven months of a year — the most ever. The annual record for tornadoes in the USA is 1,817, set in 2004. "This year, every month has been above average for tornadoes," says Greg Forbes, of the Weather Channel. "The 123 deaths so far this year are the second most in the Doppler-radar era, behind only 1998, when tornadoes killed 130," Forbes says. He adds that the widespread use of Doppler radar to help predict tornadoes and protect lives began in the early 1990s. "We’d have to go back to 1974, the year of the Super Tornado Outbreak, to have a deadlier year." Official numbers from the weather service’s StormPredictionCenter since Aug. 1 aren’t available yet, but preliminary reports for the period since then show as many as 300 tornadoes could be added. On top of that, October and November are usually very active for tornadoes, what’s known as the nation’s "second tornado season" after the main season in spring.

"We tend to see a peak in the central Plains and Midwest in October, and the Southeast USA in November," says meteorologist Gregory Carbin at the StormPredictionCenter in Norman, Okla. This month, the center says there have been 17 preliminary reports of tornadoes. Preliminary reports must be checked for duplication.  The number of tornadoes this year already is well above the 1,270 tornadoes the nation normally sees in a year, according to the National Weather Service. "2008 will compete with 2004 as far as total numbers for the year," Carbin says. "There’s a good chance that 2008 will see the greatest number of observed tornadoes on record." February saw 148 tornadoes, by far a record; the February average is 28, Forbes says. May’s 460 tornadoes made it the third most active May on record. "The pattern in May and June was quite active" Carbin says. "We’d have two to three strong storm systems a week."  Although the number of reports has risen sharply since the early 1990s, Forbes says many of the weaker tornadoes probably would not have been recorded in earlier decades. Reliable tornado records in the USA go back to 1950.

October 12-13 2008

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Sunday afternoon: 

Lihue, Kauai – 84
Honolulu, Oahu – 87
Kaneohe, Oahu – 85
Kahului, Maui – 87
Hilo, Hawaii – 82
Kailua-kona – 85

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level, and on the highest mountains…at 4 p.m. Sunday afternoon:

Kahului, Maui – 85F 
Kaneohe, Oahu – 79

Haleakala Crater    – 52  (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 39  (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Sunday afternoon:

1.14 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.48 Poamoho 2, Oahu
0.01 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.46 Oheo Gulch, Maui
0.18 Honaunau, Big Island

Weather Chart – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a high pressure system far to the NE. At the same time we find a deep winter-like low far north, with its associated cold front swinging down southward towards Kauai. South to southeast breezes Monday ahead of a cold front from Kauai and perhaps Oahu.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with the Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image. 

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

  Rising swell from the northwest in Hawaii
Photo Credit: flickr.com

The trade winds will give way to lighter south to southeast breezes Monday. A 1033 millibar high pressure center is evident on weather maps, far to our northeast Sunday evening. This high has a ridge extending southwest to a point northeast of Hawaii. A frontal boundary, to the north and northwest, is slowly approaching Kauai and Niihau islands, as we start off the new week…which will swing our winds around to the southeast or even south. This suggests that there will be periods of volcanic haze carried across the island chain at times. The trade winds will return after mid-week, clearing the islands of vog, with improving air visibilities then.

There’s quite a bit of high cirrus cloudiness being carried across our island skies Sunday evening.  As we move into Monday, our weather will take on a more autumnal influence. We’ll find a cold front or a trough stretching down to near Kauai and Niihau, where showers will increase, which may reach Oahu as well into Tuesday. Here’s a satellite image showing the approaching frontal boundary, and the high clouds stretching over the islands. The rest of the state will have lighter southeast winds, with some pre-frontal, or upcountry showers along the leeward sides…which could be at times quite generous. The trade winds will return at some point around Wednesday, with showers focused along the windward sides again then.

It’s early Sunday evening here in Kula, Maui, as I begin writing this last section of today’s weather narrative from Hawaii.  We saw a fairly nice Sunday, with spells of high cirrus clouds, along with some leeward upcountry showers as well. As we move into the Columbus Day holiday on Monday, our favorably inclined good weather will break down, as a cold front, or a trough approaches from the northwest. This frontal system will bring rain to Kauai, and perhaps to Oahu as well into Tuesday. The other islands won’t see the front itself, but will have prefrontal showers arriving at times…some of which may be rather generous locally during the afternoon hours. Thereafter, the trade winds should return, with just the usual windward biased showers during the second half of the week. As noted in one of the paragraphs above, we should see some form of volcanic emissions stretching up from the Big Islands to Maui, or other parts of the island chain as well. ~~~ We just had a good shower here in Kula, which pelted down nicely for a few minutes. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a few more quick showers between now and sunset. The clouds will decrease in coverage this evening, other than the high cirrus clouds as they move quickly overhead on the high altitude winds aloft. ~~~ I’ll be back early Monday morning with your next new weather narrative. I won’t be doing the TV weather show until I leave on vacation Wednesday. I’ll keep this website updated through Tuesday, although you will be able to get the latest weather forecasts during my three week sojourn to the mainland and Mexico…more about that over the next two days. I hope you have a great Sunday night! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting:

A new epoch is beginning at the top of the Earth, where the historic melting of the vast Arctic ice cap is opening a forbidding, beautiful, and neglected swath of the planet. Already, there is talk that potentially huge oil and natural gas deposits lie under the Arctic waters, rendered more accessible by the shrinking of ice cover. Valuable minerals, too. Sea lanes over the top of the world will dramatically cut shipping times and costs. Fisheries and tourism will shift northward. In short, the frozen, fragile north will never be the same.

The Arctic meltdown—an early symptom of global warming linked to the buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gases—heralds tantalizing prospects for the five nations that own the Arctic Ocean coastline: the United States, Canada, Russia, Norway, and Denmark (through its possession of Greenland). But this monumental transformation also carries risks quite aside from the climate implications for the planet—risks that include renewed great-power rivalry, pollution, destruction of native Inuit communities and animal habitats, and security breaches. "The world is coming to the Arctic," warns Rob Huebert, a leading Arctic analyst at the University of Calgary. "We are headed for a lot of difficulties."

The vast stakes, along with some political grandstanding, are inspiring predictions that a new great game among nations is afoot—a tense race for the Arctic. That scenario got a shot of drama last year when two Russian mini-submarines made a descent to the seabed beneath the North Pole and planted a titanium Russian flag. The operation lacked any legal standing but symbolized Moscow‘s claims to control the resources inside a mammoth slice of the Arctic, up to the North Pole itself. To calm the mood, the five Arctic coast countries gathered diplomats in Greenland this May to agree that boundary and other disputes would be handled peacefully under existing international law. "We have politically committed ourselves to resolve all differences through negotiation," Danish Foreign Minister Per Stig Möller said at the time. "The race for the North Pole has been canceled."

Interesting2:

Cleaning air in Beijing and in other large cities suffering from pollution problems by limiting car and power-plant emissions may raise global temperatures instead of lowering them, a German scientist warns. Aerosols, or particles suspended in air, have a cooling effect on the Earth, countering global warming linked to carbon dioxide, said Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research. A drop in aerosols in the atmosphere could cause a "rapid" rise in temperatures, he said. Airborne pollutants act as an umbrella worldwide while CO2 provides insulation, trapping heat attempting to escape into the atmosphere. A rise in temperature because of declines in aerosols in the atmosphere can be offset by slashing CO2 emissions, he said. By not reducing carbon output, humanity "is closing the last door we have through which we can possibly influence the global climate," Schellnhuber said.













Interesting3:

Toxins in food often have a bad, bitter taste that makes people want to spit them out. New UC Irvine research finds that bitterness also slows the digestive process, keeping bad food in the stomach longer and increasing the chances that it will be expelled. This second line of defense in the gut against dietary toxins also triggers the production of a hormone that makes people feel full, presumably to keep them from eating more of the toxic food. This discovery has the potential to help scientists develop better therapies for ailments ranging from cancer to diabetes, and it may explain why certain isolated populations around the world have adapted to eat and enjoy local foods that taste bad to outsiders and make them sick.

The study, appearing online Oct. 9 in the Journal of Clinical Investigation, was performed with mice, and the results probably translate to humans, said Timothy Osborne, molecular biology and biochemistry professor and study senior author. "We have evolved mechanisms to combat the ingestion of toxins in our food," Osborne said. "This provides a framework for an entirely new area of research on how our bodies respond to what is present in our diets." Mammals have evolved to dislike the bitter taste of toxins in food. This response is particularly important when they eat a lot of plant material, which tends to contain more bitter-tasting, potentially toxic ingredients than meat.

Interesting4:

Contrary to conventional wisdom, tropical plant and animal species living in some of the warmest places on Earth may be threatened by global warming, according to an article by University of Connecticut Ecologist Robert K. Colwell and colleagues the journal Science. As Earth’s climate has warmed in recent decades, the geographical ranges of well-studied bird, butterfly, and plant species in the US and Europe have moved northward, following the gradual northward shift of their familiar climates. Other studies have shown that species in the US and Europe have shifted to higher elevations, as temperature zones on mountains have moved upward. In contrast, surprisingly little attention has been given to the effects of warming climate on tropical plants and animals.

Colwell’s article in Science magazine this week may change that. The report points out that tropical climates have warmed too (more than 3/4 degrees Centigrade [1.4 degrees Fahrenheit] since 1975), and climate models predict an additional increase of more than 3 degrees Centigrade (nearly 6 degrees Fahrenheit) over the next century in the tropical forests of Central and South America. This much warming would shift temperature zones uphill about 600 m (nearly 2000 feet) in elevation above sea level. Tropical species, like those at higher latitudes, will likely be driven to higher elevations by these changes, following the climate zones they are suited for. Working their way up the forested slopes of a Costa Rican volcano rising nearly 3000 m (10,000 ft) above the coastal plain, Colwell and colleagues have collected data on the altitudinal ranges of nearly 2000 species of plants and insects.

Interesting5:

A small asteroid exploded over Africa this week following what astronomers said was the first firm prediction of an incoming space rock. It did not strike Earth. The asteroid was about the size of kitchen table, astronomers estimated, and they think the explosion (caused by the pressures of slamming into the atmosphere) left nothing but perhaps a few small bits to fall to the surface. No photographs of the explosion have been reported, owing to the remote location of the object’s path over Sudan. But the explosion was recorded by an infrasound array in Kenya. Peter Brown at the University of Western Ontario estimated, based on the infrasound data, that the asteroid exploded at 0243 UT with an energy of somewhere between 1.1 and 2.1 kilotons of TNT. On Monday, NASA researchers and other scientists announced that the space rock, named 8TA9D69, would enter the air at 10:46 p.m. ET (0246 UT) on Oct. 7 over northern Sudan. Such events occur a few times every year, but never before had one been predicted.

The object was expected to create a very bright fireball that, for anyone who might have seen it, would have been far more dramatic than the typical shooting star resulting when small debris streaks through Earth’s atmosphere. "A typical meteor comes from an object the size of a grain of sand," Gareth Williams of the Minor Planet Center explained just before the highly anticipated event. "This meteor will be a real humdinger in comparison!" There has been one visual confirmation of the exploding fireball, according to Spaceweather.com. Jacob Kuiper, a general aviation meteorologist at the National Weather Service in The Netherlands, told pilots to keep an eye out. "I have received confirmation that a KLM airliner, roughly 750 nautical miles southwest of the predicted atmospheric impact position, has observed a short flash just before the expected impact time 0246 UTC," Kuiper said. "Because of the distance it was not a very large phenomenon, but still a confirmation that some bright meteor has been seen in the predicted direction." The rock was discovered by an ongoing survey at Mt.Lemmon run by the University of Arizona as part of the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey for near-Earth objects.

October 11-12 2008

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Saturday afternoon: 

Lihue, Kauai – 85
Honolulu, Oahu – 87
Kaneohe, Oahu – 82
Kahului, Maui – 86
Hilo, Hawaii – 83
Kailua-kona – 85

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level, and on the highest mountains…at 4 p.m. Saturday afternoon:

Barking Sands, Kauai – 85F 
Kaneohe, Oahu – 79

Haleakala Crater    – 52  (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 39  (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Saturday afternoon:

0.63 Mount Waialeale, Kauai
0.11 Poamoho 2, Oahu
0.10 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.69 Oheo Gulch, Maui
0.33 Honaunau, Big Island

Weather Chart – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing high pressure systems far to the NE and NW. At the same time we find a deep winter-like low far north, with its associated cold front swinging down southward. The high to our NE has a ridge to the north of our islands, which will provide light to moderately strong trade winds Sunday…then south to southeast Monday ahead of a cold front from Kauai and perhaps Oahu.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with the Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image. 

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

  Looking towards the ocean…from Upcountry Maui
Photo Credit: flickr.com

The trade winds will prevail through Sunday, coming our way in the light to moderately strong realms. A 1032 millibar high pressure center is evident on weather maps, far to our northeast Saturday evening. This high has a ridge extending southwest to a point north of Hawaii. Our trade winds will remain active through Sunday. A low pressure system to our north, along with its trough will approach Kauai, as we start off the new week…which will swing our winds around to the southeast or even south. This suggests that there will be periods of volcanic haze carried across the island chain at times. The trade winds will return by mid-week, clearing the islands of vog, with improving air visibilities then.

There is some lower level cloudiness being carried across our islands, in addition to some high cloudiness as well. The bias for showers remains focused over to the windward sides. We’ll find favorably inclined weather circumstances, for the most part, through Sunday. As we proceed into the new week ahead, our weather will take on a more autumnal influence. We’ll find a cold front or a trough stretching down to near Kauai, where showers will increase, which may reach Oahu as well into Tuesday. The rest of the state will have lighter southeast to south winds, with some pre-frontal, or upcountry showers along the leeward sides . The trade winds will return by Wednesday, with showers focused along the windward sides again then.

Hurricane Norbert has moved over mainland Mexico, while tropical storm Odile continues moving just offshore, or very near the mainland Mexico coast. Norbert brought over 100 mph winds to the west coast of Baja, early Saturday morning, and is now passed over the Gulf of California, onto the mainland Mexican coast inland. This soon to be retired storm will bring locally heavy rains to the central and southern Great Plains of the United States over the next couple of days. Here’s a tracking map showing this tropical system, as well as a satellite image of Norbert. ~~~ Meanwhile, tropical storm Odile continues its journey up the southern Mexican coast, before it turns westward into the Pacific Ocean. Here’s a tracking map, and you can see the storm just offshore from Mexico on this satellite image. By the way, none of this tropical cyclone activity will have any influence on our weather here in the north central Pacific.

It’s early Saturday evening here in Kula, Maui, as I begin writing this last section of today’s weather narrative from Hawaii.  We’re looking at a good weekend, with plenty of all the good things that make it that way. Daytime temperatures will feel like summer, there will be lots of sunshine, and just a few showers along the windward sides…mostly at night. We will see patches of high cirrus clouds overhead at times too. As we move into the new week ahead, that good weather will break down, as a cold front, or a trough approaches from the northwest. This frontal system will bring rain to Kauai, and probably to Oahu as well into Tuesday. The other islands won’t likely see the front itself, but will have prefrontal showers arriving at times…some of which may be rather generous locally during the afternoon hours. Thereafter, the trade winds should return, with just the usual windward biased showers during the second half of the week. As noted in one of the paragraphs above, we should see some form of volcanic emissions stretching up from the Big Islands to Maui, or other parts of the island chain as well. 

~~~ I went to see the new film called The Duchess (2008), starring Keira Knightley and Ralph Fiennes among others, Friday evening after work. A consensus by the critics says: "While The Duchess treads the now-familiar terrain of the corset-ripper, the costumes look great and Keira Knightley’s performance is stellar in this subtly feminist, period drama." One reviewer said this: "It’s a beautiful period piece that will send you to a bookstore for a better account of the dirt and vice at its core." I must say that I really liked this film, it had some humor, as well as being touching and serious, all in about equal measure. I really appreciate Keira Knightley’s acting talents, and her good looks too. Ralph Fiennes plays her kingly husband, but can’t hold a candle to her talents, in my humble opinion. I usually go to see these guy films, with lots of action and stuff, but The Duchess, is the type of period piece that I can truly appreciate as well. Here’s a trailer for The Duchess.

~~~ I went over to Haiku around noon today, for a haircut. I had some shopping to do at Mana Foods in Paia afterwards, so decided to go to Baldwin Beach for a nice walk and a swim. It was quite sunny, with high clouds, and somewhat gusty trade winds blowing…but nice and warm at the same time. It was nice to be at the beach, I always appreciate that when I make the time for such things. I went shopping, and then came home here to Kula. It’s just before sunset at the moment, so I’ll move out to my weather deck, and witness the somewhat cloudy end of the day. I’ll be back here Sunday morning with your next weather narrative. I hope you have a great Saturday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting:

A new epoch is beginning at the top of the Earth, where the historic melting of the vast Arctic ice cap is opening a forbidding, beautiful, and neglected swath of the planet. Already, there is talk that potentially huge oil and natural gas deposits lie under the Arctic waters, rendered more accessible by the shrinking of ice cover. Valuable minerals, too. Sea lanes over the top of the world will dramatically cut shipping times and costs. Fisheries and tourism will shift northward. In short, the frozen, fragile north will never be the same.

The Arctic meltdown—an early symptom of global warming linked to the buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gases—heralds tantalizing prospects for the five nations that own the Arctic Ocean coastline: the United States, Canada, Russia, Norway, and Denmark (through its possession of Greenland). But this monumental transformation also carries risks quite aside from the climate implications for the planet—risks that include renewed great-power rivalry, pollution, destruction of native Inuit communities and animal habitats, and security breaches. "The world is coming to the Arctic," warns Rob Huebert, a leading Arctic analyst at the University of Calgary. "We are headed for a lot of difficulties."

The vast stakes, along with some political grandstanding, are inspiring predictions that a new great game among nations is afoot—a tense race for the Arctic. That scenario got a shot of drama last year when two Russian mini-submarines made a descent to the seabed beneath the North Pole and planted a titanium Russian flag. The operation lacked any legal standing but symbolized Moscow‘s claims to control the resources inside a mammoth slice of the Arctic, up to the North Pole itself. To calm the mood, the five Arctic coast countries gathered diplomats in Greenland this May to agree that boundary and other disputes would be handled peacefully under existing international law. "We have politically committed ourselves to resolve all differences through negotiation," Danish Foreign Minister Per Stig Möller said at the time. "The race for the North Pole has been canceled."

Interesting2:

Cleaning air in Beijing and in other large cities suffering from pollution problems by limiting car and power-plant emissions may raise global temperatures instead of lowering them, a German scientist warns. Aerosols, or particles suspended in air, have a cooling effect on the Earth, countering global warming linked to carbon dioxide, said Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research. A drop in aerosols in the atmosphere could cause a "rapid" rise in temperatures, he said. Airborne pollutants act as an umbrella worldwide while CO2 provides insulation, trapping heat attempting to escape into the atmosphere. A rise in temperature because of declines in aerosols in the atmosphere can be offset by slashing CO2 emissions, he said. By not reducing carbon output, humanity "is closing the last door we have through which we can possibly influence the global climate," Schellnhuber said.













Interesting3:

Toxins in food often have a bad, bitter taste that makes people want to spit them out. New UC Irvine research finds that bitterness also slows the digestive process, keeping bad food in the stomach longer and increasing the chances that it will be expelled. This second line of defense in the gut against dietary toxins also triggers the production of a hormone that makes people feel full, presumably to keep them from eating more of the toxic food. This discovery has the potential to help scientists develop better therapies for ailments ranging from cancer to diabetes, and it may explain why certain isolated populations around the world have adapted to eat and enjoy local foods that taste bad to outsiders and make them sick.

The study, appearing online Oct. 9 in the Journal of Clinical Investigation, was performed with mice, and the results probably translate to humans, said Timothy Osborne, molecular biology and biochemistry professor and study senior author. "We have evolved mechanisms to combat the ingestion of toxins in our food," Osborne said. "This provides a framework for an entirely new area of research on how our bodies respond to what is present in our diets." Mammals have evolved to dislike the bitter taste of toxins in food. This response is particularly important when they eat a lot of plant material, which tends to contain more bitter-tasting, potentially toxic ingredients than meat.

Interesting4:

Contrary to conventional wisdom, tropical plant and animal species living in some of the warmest places on Earth may be threatened by global warming, according to an article by University of Connecticut Ecologist Robert K. Colwell and colleagues the journal Science. As Earth’s climate has warmed in recent decades, the geographical ranges of well-studied bird, butterfly, and plant species in the US and Europe have moved northward, following the gradual northward shift of their familiar climates. Other studies have shown that species in the US and Europe have shifted to higher elevations, as temperature zones on mountains have moved upward. In contrast, surprisingly little attention has been given to the effects of warming climate on tropical plants and animals.

Colwell’s article in Science magazine this week may change that. The report points out that tropical climates have warmed too (more than 3/4 degrees Centigrade [1.4 degrees Fahrenheit] since 1975), and climate models predict an additional increase of more than 3 degrees Centigrade (nearly 6 degrees Fahrenheit) over the next century in the tropical forests of Central and South America. This much warming would shift temperature zones uphill about 600 m (nearly 2000 feet) in elevation above sea level. Tropical species, like those at higher latitudes, will likely be driven to higher elevations by these changes, following the climate zones they are suited for. Working their way up the forested slopes of a Costa Rican volcano rising nearly 3000 m (10,000 ft) above the coastal plain, Colwell and colleagues have collected data on the altitudinal ranges of nearly 2000 species of plants and insects.

Interesting5:

A small asteroid exploded over Africa this week following what astronomers said was the first firm prediction of an incoming space rock. It did not strike Earth. The asteroid was about the size of kitchen table, astronomers estimated, and they think the explosion (caused by the pressures of slamming into the atmosphere) left nothing but perhaps a few small bits to fall to the surface. No photographs of the explosion have been reported, owing to the remote location of the object’s path over Sudan. But the explosion was recorded by an infrasound array in Kenya. Peter Brown at the University of Western Ontario estimated, based on the infrasound data, that the asteroid exploded at 0243 UT with an energy of somewhere between 1.1 and 2.1 kilotons of TNT. On Monday, NASA researchers and other scientists announced that the space rock, named 8TA9D69, would enter the air at 10:46 p.m. ET (0246 UT) on Oct. 7 over northern Sudan. Such events occur a few times every year, but never before had one been predicted.

The object was expected to create a very bright fireball that, for anyone who might have seen it, would have been far more dramatic than the typical shooting star resulting when small debris streaks through Earth’s atmosphere. "A typical meteor comes from an object the size of a grain of sand," Gareth Williams of the Minor Planet Center explained just before the highly anticipated event. "This meteor will be a real humdinger in comparison!" There has been one visual confirmation of the exploding fireball, according to Spaceweather.com. Jacob Kuiper, a general aviation meteorologist at the National Weather Service in The Netherlands, told pilots to keep an eye out. "I have received confirmation that a KLM airliner, roughly 750 nautical miles southwest of the predicted atmospheric impact position, has observed a short flash just before the expected impact time 0246 UTC," Kuiper said. "Because of the distance it was not a very large phenomenon, but still a confirmation that some bright meteor has been seen in the predicted direction." The rock was discovered by an ongoing survey at Mt.Lemmon run by the University of Arizona as part of the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey for near-Earth objects.

October 10-11 2008

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Friday afternoon: 

Lihue, Kauai – 84
Honolulu, Oahu – 87
Kaneohe, Oahu – 83
Kahului, Maui – 87
Hilo, Hawaii – 83
Kailua-kona – 85

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level, and on the highest mountains…at 5 p.m. Friday evening:

Port Allen, Kauai – 86F  
Hilo, Hawaii – 78

Haleakala Crater    – 48  (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 34  (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Friday afternoon:

0.94 Mount Waialeale Kauai
1.23 Oahu Forest NWR, Oahu
0.06 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.37 Kahoolawe
0.67 Puu Kukui, Maui
0.42 Pahoa, Big Island

Weather Chart – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing high pressure systems far to the NE and NW. At the same time we find a deep winter-like low far north, with its associated cold front swinging down southward. The high to our NE has a ridge to the north of our islands, which will provide light to moderately strong trade winds this weekend.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with the Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image. 

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

  The north coast of Kauai…shower in the background
Photo Credit: flickr.com

The trade winds will prevail through the weekend, coming our way in the light to moderately strong realms. A 1035 millibar high pressure center is evident on weather maps, far to our northeast. This high has a ridge extending southwest to points north of Hawaii. Our trade winds have increased as expected, and will remain active through the weekend. A low pressure system to our north, as we start off the new week, will swing our winds around to the southeast or even south. The winds may, and there is still some uncertainty about this weather solution, may become southeast, and then easterly again during the second half of next week. This suggests that there may be periods of volcanic haze carried across the island chain at times.

There is some lower level cloudiness being carried across our islands, thanks to the refreshed trade wind flow Friday evening. The bias for showers has shifted back over to the windward sides. At the same time, we see that there is high level cirrus clouds being carried overhead by the winds at higher levels of the atmosphere…at jet stream altitudes. We’ll find favorably inclined weather circumstances, for the most part, as we move into the weekend time frame. As we proceed into early next week, our weather will become more changable, with the chance of clouds and showers taking aim on the leeward upcountry sides of the islands…brought our way by the southeast to south Kona winds. The likelihood of increased showers remains in place for the first several days of the new week..especially on the Kauai and Oahu end of the chain.

Hurricane Norbert is a category 2 hurricane in the eastern Pacific, while tropical storm Odile will reaching hurricane strength this weekend. Norbert continues its bead on the southern part of the Baja Peninsula, along the west coast, bringing strong winds to that area on Saturday morning. Here’s a tracking map showing this tropical system in the eastern Pacific, as well as a satellite image of Norbert. All ships in the area should be giving a wide berth to this hurricane, while residents of central and southern Baja should be paying very close attention, making last minute preparations now! Meanwhile, tropical storm Odile continues its journey up the southern Mexican coast, and will be increasing to a hurricane as it parallels the central Mexican coast offshore. Here’s a tracking map, and you can see the storm just offshore from Mexico on this satellite image. By the way, none of this tropical cyclone activity will have any influence on our weather here in the north central Pacific.

It’s early Friday evening here in Kihei, Maui, as I begin writing this last section of today’s weather narrative from Hawaii.  Friday was another good day here in Hawaii, at least on the weather front…which is my bag. I certainly hear about the economic woes by looking at the search engines, and news sites…that’s for sure. I see less cars around, and fewer people in the shopping centers as well. I keep expecting the stock market to zoom upwards, although it seems to be on a near permanent downwards spiral. We have all heard the famous statement, "what goes down, must eventually come back up" of course! ~~~ We’ve also heard about how the weather shifts around, first its near perfect, and then especially as we dig deeper into our autumn season…it eventually goes that other way too. Things look set to change as we launch off into the new week ahead, although at this point, it looks like Kauai and Oahu may end up seeing the most showery weather, while the Big Island and Maui may see more volcanic haze than falling rain drops. I’ll have more about this as we get into the weekend, stay tuned as the old saying goes. ~~~ I think I’ll go see the new film called The Duchess (2008), starring Keira Knightley and Ralph Fiennes among others this evening. A consnsus by the critics says: "While The Duchess treads the now-familiar terrain of the corset-ripper, the costumes look great and Keira Knightley’s performance is stellar in this subtly feminist, period drama." One reviewer says this: "It’s a beautiful period piece that will send you to a bookstore for a better account of the dirt and vice at its core." I’ll give it a try, knowing that I also want to see Body of Lies with Russell Crowe and Leonardo DiCaprio…which I have a feeling will have more staying power, and still be around when I get back from my vacation. Here’s a trailer for The Duchess. ~~~ I’ll be back with you early Saturday morning with my movie review, and lots more about our local weather here in the islands. I hope you have a great Friday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Interesting:

A new epoch is beginning at the top of the Earth, where the historic melting of the vast Arctic ice cap is opening a forbidding, beautiful, and neglected swath of the planet. Already, there is talk that potentially huge oil and natural gas deposits lie under the Arctic waters, rendered more accessible by the shrinking of ice cover. Valuable minerals, too. Sea lanes over the top of the world will dramatically cut shipping times and costs. Fisheries and tourism will shift northward. In short, the frozen, fragile north will never be the same.

The Arctic meltdown—an early symptom of global warming linked to the buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gases—heralds tantalizing prospects for the five nations that own the Arctic Ocean coastline: the United States, Canada, Russia, Norway, and Denmark (through its possession of Greenland). But this monumental transformation also carries risks quite aside from the climate implications for the planet—risks that include renewed great-power rivalry, pollution, destruction of native Inuit communities and animal habitats, and security breaches. "The world is coming to the Arctic," warns Rob Huebert, a leading Arctic analyst at the University of Calgary. "We are headed for a lot of difficulties."

The vast stakes, along with some political grandstanding, are inspiring predictions that a new great game among nations is afoot—a tense race for the Arctic. That scenario got a shot of drama last year when two Russian mini-submarines made a descent to the seabed beneath the North Pole and planted a titanium Russian flag. The operation lacked any legal standing but symbolized Moscow‘s claims to control the resources inside a mammoth slice of the Arctic, up to the North Pole itself. To calm the mood, the five Arctic coast countries gathered diplomats in Greenland this May to agree that boundary and other disputes would be handled peacefully under existing international law. "We have politically committed ourselves to resolve all differences through negotiation," Danish Foreign Minister Per Stig Möller said at the time. "The race for the North Pole has been canceled."

Interesting2:

Cleaning air in Beijing and in other large cities suffering from pollution problems by limiting car and power-plant emissions may raise global temperatures instead of lowering them, a German scientist warns. Aerosols, or particles suspended in air, have a cooling effect on the Earth, countering global warming linked to carbon dioxide, said Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research. A drop in aerosols in the atmosphere could cause a "rapid" rise in temperatures, he said. Airborne pollutants act as an umbrella worldwide while CO2 provides insulation, trapping heat attempting to escape into the atmosphere. A rise in temperature because of declines in aerosols in the atmosphere can be offset by slashing CO2 emissions, he said. By not reducing carbon output, humanity "is closing the last door we have through which we can possibly influence the global climate," Schellnhuber said.













Interesting3:

Toxins in food often have a bad, bitter taste that makes people want to spit them out. New UC Irvine research finds that bitterness also slows the digestive process, keeping bad food in the stomach longer and increasing the chances that it will be expelled. This second line of defense in the gut against dietary toxins also triggers the production of a hormone that makes people feel full, presumably to keep them from eating more of the toxic food. This discovery has the potential to help scientists develop better therapies for ailments ranging from cancer to diabetes, and it may explain why certain isolated populations around the world have adapted to eat and enjoy local foods that taste bad to outsiders and make them sick.

The study, appearing online Oct. 9 in the Journal of Clinical Investigation, was performed with mice, and the results probably translate to humans, said Timothy Osborne, molecular biology and biochemistry professor and study senior author. "We have evolved mechanisms to combat the ingestion of toxins in our food," Osborne said. "This provides a framework for an entirely new area of research on how our bodies respond to what is present in our diets." Mammals have evolved to dislike the bitter taste of toxins in food. This response is particularly important when they eat a lot of plant material, which tends to contain more bitter-tasting, potentially toxic ingredients than meat.

Interesting4:

Contrary to conventional wisdom, tropical plant and animal species living in some of the warmest places on Earth may be threatened by global warming, according to an article by University of Connecticut Ecologist Robert K. Colwell and colleagues the journal Science. As Earth’s climate has warmed in recent decades, the geographical ranges of well-studied bird, butterfly, and plant species in the US and Europe have moved northward, following the gradual northward shift of their familiar climates. Other studies have shown that species in the US and Europe have shifted to higher elevations, as temperature zones on mountains have moved upward. In contrast, surprisingly little attention has been given to the effects of warming climate on tropical plants and animals.

Colwell’s article in Science magazine this week may change that. The report points out that tropical climates have warmed too (more than 3/4 degrees Centigrade [1.4 degrees Fahrenheit] since 1975), and climate models predict an additional increase of more than 3 degrees Centigrade (nearly 6 degrees Fahrenheit) over the next century in the tropical forests of Central and South America. This much warming would shift temperature zones uphill about 600 m (nearly 2000 feet) in elevation above sea level. Tropical species, like those at higher latitudes, will likely be driven to higher elevations by these changes, following the climate zones they are suited for. Working their way up the forested slopes of a Costa Rican volcano rising nearly 3000 m (10,000 ft) above the coastal plain, Colwell and colleagues have collected data on the altitudinal ranges of nearly 2000 species of plants and insects.

Interesting5:

A small asteroid exploded over Africa this week following what astronomers said was the first firm prediction of an incoming space rock. It did not strike Earth. The asteroid was about the size of kitchen table, astronomers estimated, and they think the explosion (caused by the pressures of slamming into the atmosphere) left nothing but perhaps a few small bits to fall to the surface. No photographs of the explosion have been reported, owing to the remote location of the object’s path over Sudan. But the explosion was recorded by an infrasound array in Kenya. Peter Brown at the University of Western Ontario estimated, based on the infrasound data, that the asteroid exploded at 0243 UT with an energy of somewhere between 1.1 and 2.1 kilotons of TNT. On Monday, NASA researchers and other scientists announced that the space rock, named 8TA9D69, would enter the air at 10:46 p.m. ET (0246 UT) on Oct. 7 over northern Sudan. Such events occur a few times every year, but never before had one been predicted.

The object was expected to create a very bright fireball that, for anyone who might have seen it, would have been far more dramatic than the typical shooting star resulting when small debris streaks through Earth’s atmosphere. "A typical meteor comes from an object the size of a grain of sand," Gareth Williams of the Minor Planet Center explained just before the highly anticipated event. "This meteor will be a real humdinger in comparison!" There has been one visual confirmation of the exploding fireball, according to Spaceweather.com. Jacob Kuiper, a general aviation meteorologist at the National Weather Service in The Netherlands, told pilots to keep an eye out. "I have received confirmation that a KLM airliner, roughly 750 nautical miles southwest of the predicted atmospheric impact position, has observed a short flash just before the expected impact time 0246 UTC," Kuiper said. "Because of the distance it was not a very large phenomenon, but still a confirmation that some bright meteor has been seen in the predicted direction." The rock was discovered by an ongoing survey at Mt.Lemmon run by the University of Arizona as part of the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey for near-Earth objects.

October 9-10 2008

Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Thursday afternoon: 

Lihue, Kauai – 85
Honolulu, Oahu – 88
Kaneohe, Oahu – 83
Kahului, Maui – 86
Hilo, Hawaii – 84
Kailua-kona – 84

Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level, and on the highest mountains…at 4 p.m. Thursday afternoon:

Honolulu, Oahu – 86F  
Hilo, Hawaii – 79

Haleakala Crater    – 54  (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 43  (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)

Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Thursday afternoon:

0.22 Mount Waialeale Kauai
0.17 Manoa Lyon Arboretum, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.09 Hana airport, Maui
0.05 Pahala, Big Island

Weather Chart – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing low pressure systems to the north and NW of Hawaii. This will allow the high pressure ridge, to our north, to migrate northward as well. This in turn will allow gradually increasing trade wind speeds Friday into the weekend.

Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with the Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the Pacific Ocean. To help you keep track of where any showers may be around the islands, here’s the latest animated radar image. 

Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live webcam on the summit of near 14,000 foot Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. The tallest peak on the island of Maui is the Haleakala Crater, which is near 10,000 feet in elevation. These two webcams are available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon rising just after sunset for an hour or two! Plus, during the nights and early mornings you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise too…depending upon weather conditions.

Aloha Paragraphs

  The ending to a near perfect Maui day
Photo Credit: flickr.com

The trade winds have increased during the day Thursday, which will further strengthen into Friday…then remain moderately strong through the weekend. A high pressure center is evident on weather maps far to our northeast. This high has a ridge extending southwest to points north and northwest of Hawaii. Our trade winds have filled back in Thursday, then more so into the upcoming weekend. The models are sketchy at this point, but the light to moderately strong trade winds should give way to another bout of lighter southeast winds early next week…as a trough of low pressure to the north interrupts our wind flow.

As the trade winds gradually return into Friday, we’ll see some modest increase in showers along the windward sides of the islands. The bias for showers will shift back over to the windward sides Thursday night into Friday. We’ll find generally favorably inclined weather circumstances as we move into the upcoming weekend time frame. As we proceed into early next week, our weather may become more changable, with chance of afternoon clouds and showers taking aim on the leeward upcountry sides of the islands…especially over Kauai and Oahu.

Hurricane Norbert has declined in strength, although is still a hurricane in the eastern Pacific. Norbert continues its bead on the southern part of the Baja Peninsula, along the west coast, bringing strong winds to that area on Saturday. Here’s a tracking map showing this tropical system in the eastern Pacific, as well as a satellite image of Norbert. All ships in the area should be giving a wide berth to this hurricane, while residents of central and southern Baja should be paying very close attention, and battening down the hatches soon! Meanwhile, tropical storm Odile has taken shape off the southern Mexican coast, and will be increasing almost to a hurricane as it parallels the central Mexican coast offshore. Here’s a tracking map, and you can see the storm just offshore from Mexico on this satellite image.

It’s early Thursday evening here in Kihei, Maui, as I begin writing this last section of today’s weather narrative from Hawaii. As noted above, the trade winds will gradually be taking the place of the light wind situation we’ve seen the last couple of days. These trade winds won’t be getting all that strong, but should gain light to moderately strong status Friday into the weekend. Meanwhile, as the trade winds arrive during the day Thursday, we should see some sort of minor increase in showers along the windward sides of the islands during the night into Friday. These showers will remain with us into the weekend, providing what we could describe as a fairly typical trade wind weather pattern. ~~~ As we move into next week, the models are still not as clear as we’d like them to be as to what will be coming our way. At this time, I looks like our winds will calm down again after the weekend. Depending upon just where a newly developing low pressure system, and its associated trough decide where they will end up…will help determine what will happen then. I’d say at this point, lighter winds in general, and chance of afternoon clouds and showers manifesting over the leeward sides during the afternoons on Kauai and Oahu. We may have little if any weather changes in store for Maui and the Big Island, further east from the low pressure to the northwest of Kauai. ~~~ Looking out the window here in Kihei, I see blue skies, with at least some high clouds streaking across our skies, along with the trade winds definitely back into play. I anticipate another good night, with the addition of a few windward biased showers during the overnight hours. Friday should be about like Thursday, with the weekend about like Thursday and Friday! I’ll be back early Friday morning with your next new weather narrative from paradise, I hope you have a great Thursday night until then! Aloha for now…Glenn. 

Interesting:

We heard this week that a quarter of all mammals are threatened with extinction. One of those, the polar bear, made headlines earlier this year for being the first animal to be listed on the US Endangered Species Act, because of its vulnerability to climate change. This begs the question: aren’t all species vulnerable to climate change? Why protect the polar bear but not the ringed seal? This is the question that a huge endeavor led by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) is attempting to answer. Its first results were presented in Barcelona, Spain, on Wednesday.

The verdict is bleak: of 17,000 assessed species, over 7000 could become threatened with extinction because of climate change. "Climate change is already happening, but conservation decision-makers currently have very little guidance on which species are going to be the worst affected," says Wendy Foden, who led the efforts. Yet, "Climate change is going to affect everything we do in terms of conservation," adds Jean-Christophe Vié, deputy head of the species program at the IUCN. In order to assess which species need protection first, experts working with the IUCN have spent the past few years reviewing 17,000 species of birds, amphibians and warm-water corals to assess how susceptible they are to climate change.

Interesting2:

The International Herald Tribune, October 8, 2008 Wednesday – The United Nations food agency on Tuesday called for a review of biofuel subsides and policies, noting that they had contributed significantly to rising food prices and the hunger in poor countries. With policies and subsidies to encourage biofuel production in place in much of the developed world, farmers now often find it more profitable to plants crops for fuel rather than for food, a shift that has helped lead to global food shortages. Current policies should be ”urgently reviewed in order to preserve the goal of world food security, protect poor farmers, promote broad-based rural development and ensure environmental sustainability,” said a report released by the executive director of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, Jacques Diouf, in Rome on Tuesday.

”The challenge is to reduce or manage the risks while sharing the opportunities more widely,” he said. In releasing the report, the UN joins other environmental groups and prominent international experts who have called for an end to – or at least a serious overhaul of – subsidies for biofuels, which are cleaner, plant-based fuels that can be substituted for oil and gas in some circumstances. In a devastating assessment released this summer, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development concluded that government support of biofuel production in OECD countries was hugely expensive and ”had a limited impact on reducing greenhouse gases and improving energy security.” It did have ”a significant impact on world crop prices,” the report noted. ”National governments should cease to create new mandates for biofuels and investigate ways to phase them out,” the report concluded.