December 9-10 2008
Air Temperatures – The following maximum temperatures were recorded across the state of Hawaii Tuesday afternoon:
Lihue, Kauai – 77
Honolulu, Oahu – 80
Kaneohe, Oahu – 79
Kahului, Maui – 84
Hilo, Hawaii – 79
Kailua-kona – 81
Air Temperatures ranged between these warmest and coolest spots near sea level, and on the highest mountains…at 4 p.m. Tuesday afternoon:
Port Allen, Kauai – 81F
Molokai airport – 69F
Haleakala Crater – 46 (near 10,000 feet on Maui)
Mauna Kea summit – 39 (near 14,000 feet on the Big Island)
Precipitation Totals – The following numbers represent the largest precipitation totals (inches) during the last 24 hours on each of the major islands, as of Tuesday afternoon:
0.57 Mount Waialaele, Kauai
0.02 Poamoho 2, Oahu
0.00 Molokai
0.00 Lanai
0.00 Kahoolawe
0.03 Hana airport, Maui
0.49 Kealakekua, Big Island
Weather Chart – Here’s the latest (automatically updated) weather map showing a low far NW of the area will deepen rapidly and move SE at 10 kt through this evening, then move away to the northwest. A front will move SE at 25 kt and enter the NW waters Thursday. The front will stall over the central waters Thursday night, then move west slowly.
Satellite and Radar Images: To view the cloud conditions we have here in Hawaii, please use the following satellite links, starting off with the Infrared Satellite Image of the islands to see all the clouds around the state during the day and night. This next image is one that gives close images of the islands only during the daytime hours, and is referred to as a Close-up visible image. This next image shows a larger view of the Pacific…giving perspective to the wider ranging cloud patterns in the
Aloha Paragraphs
Nene Goose…Hawaiian state bird
Photo Credit: Flikr.com
The trade winds are gone, becoming southeast to south now into Wednesday. They are coming out of the southeast, although will turn the corner soon, veering around to the south, and then fully to the southwest later Wednesday….at least from Oahu to Kauai. As these winds clock around the compass dial, we’ll see volcanic haze get carried up from the three vents on the Big Island, onwards to Maui County, and perhaps beyond. As a large Kona low pressure system gets closer, Wednesday night into Thursday, our winds will be on an upward trend in strength, becoming stronger from the opposite direction than the more usual trade winds. The winds will arrive along the leeward sides of the islands, and be quite blustery.
Winds from this direction can funnel through valleys and over ridges, bringing gusty winds to the windward sides in places too. The fact that the islands of Kauai and Oahu will be closest to the Kona low, to our northwest, will put them in the area of strongest winds. It appears that those blustery winds will be at their maximum levels, between Wednesday night, Thursday into Friday. The islands of Maui and the Big Island will likely see south to southeast winds during this period, and they may be locally gusty as well. These strong winds will more than likely necessitate a small craft wind advisory, or even a wind advisory over some parts of the islands…with rough and choppy waters along the leeward coasts with time to.
Showers have been limited, but the chance of precipitation will be on the increase Wednesday onward…especially over Kauai and Oahu. There may be a rather pronounced increase in showers on Kauai and Oahu…that is once the Kona low sets up shop. We’ll see increased moisture being drawn-up over that end of the state on the strengthening south to southwest Kona winds into Friday. This will bring locally heavy rain over Kauai and Oahu, which may or may not reach the other islands. Maui and the Big Island, at least the way it looks now, will be on the outer edge of the heaviest rainfall…although won’t be completely dry. The NWS forecast office in Honolulu hasn’t issued a Hydrologic Outlook Statement, which is usually their way of warning of excessively heavy rainfall. Nonetheless, with the Kona winds dipping down into the deeper tropics, there’s a good chance of wet weather streaming up into the Aloha state.
A wide streak of high and middle level clouds has been moving through the state recently, which is now clearing the Big Island. This area of cirrus has been filtering and dimming our Hawaiian sunshine the last couple of days. As this satellite image shows, the back edge has already cleared Kauai, Oahu, and the islands of Maui County…and now the Big Island. Looking to the northwest, we see another area of high clouds, along with a line of lower level clouds as well…and then another frontal looking band beyond that to the NW. As this forecast weather map shows, in 48 hours we’ll have a major Kona low pressure system sitting just to the northwest of Kauai. The counterclockwise air circulation around this low, will bring in the windy weather, and the rainfall riding in on those Kona winds.
This 72 hour forecast chart shows a cold front bearing down on the state. The big question at this point is just how far this frontal cloud band will exert itself into the state? If it stalls near Kauai, then that island will receive the most rainfall. If on the other hand, it were to remain strong enough to reach Oahu, or even Mau…then a period of potentially heavy rainfall would travel down the island chain with it. Beyond all of this, the models show our winds generally staying southeast, with a trough of low pressure to the west. This may keep hazy weather over us well into next week. It looks like a second Kona low pressure system may form to the west of Kauai next week, which could bring more showers to the western side of the state then. It appears like we won’t see much of the trade winds for quite some time.
It’s early Tuesday evening here in Kihei, Maui, as I get ready to take the drive upcountry to Kula. All of the information above describes well what we think might happen over the next week or so. This is the best guess, although as is always the case, things change, and we may need to go back to the drawing boards…with an eraser that works well! There will definitely be some fine tuning going on as we get deeper into the work week. It’s virtually impossible to get every aspect of the weather correct, at least ahead of time. I will be back again very early Wednesday morning with the next new set of updates. I hope you have a great Tuesday night, and a start to your Wednesday morning, until then! Aloha for now…Glenn.
Interesting: Why do some species of birds lay only one egg in their nest, while others lay 10 or more? A global study of the wide variation among birds in this trait, known as the "clutch size," now provides biologists with some answers. The study, published in the current issue of the journal PLoS Biology, combined data on the clutch sizes of 5,290 species of birds with information on the biology and environment of each of these species. "With this approach, we were able to explain a major proportion of the global variation in clutch size and also to predict with high confidence the average clutch size for types of birds living and breeding in certain environments," said Walter Jetz, an associate professor of biology at UC San Diego and the senior author of the study.
"For example, cavity nesters, such as woodpeckers, have larger clutches than open-nesting species. And species in seasonal environments, especially those living at northern latitudes, have larger clutches than tropical birds." Clutch size in birds and reptiles has long been studied by biologists, who have found generally that species that are short-lived or have a low survival rate among their offspring tend to lay more eggs at one time to increase the chances of having surviving offspring. In contrast, longer-lived species or those with a higher survival rate among offspring tend to lay fewer eggs in their nests and invest more time and effort in raising their offspring. However, the reasons why one species of bird may lay one egg and another 10 are more complex because clutch sizes can vary widely between closely related species due to variations in their environment, nutrition, health and predation.
Interesting2: Modern day concentrations of ground level ozone pollution are decreasing the growth of trees in the northern and temperate mid-latitudes, as shown in a paper publishing December 9 in Global Change Biology. Tree growth, measured in biomass, is already 7% less than the late 1800s, and this is set to increase to a 17% reduction by the end of the century. Ozone pollution is four times greater now than prior to the Industrial Revolution in the mid-1700s; if modern dependence on fossil fuels continues at the current pace, future ozone concentrations will be at least double current levels by the end of this century with the capacity to further decrease the growth of trees.
The study is the first statistical summary of individual experimental measurements of how ozone will damage the productivity of trees, including data from 263 peer-reviewed scientific publications. Ozone is the third strongest greenhouse gas, directly contributing to global warming, and is the air pollutant considered to be the most damaging to plants. But more importantly, it has the potential to leave more carbon dioxide, ranked as the first strongest greenhouse gas, in the atmosphere by decreasing carbon assimilation in trees. Ozone pollution occurs when nitrogen oxides have a photochemical reaction with volatile organic compounds.
Interesting3: New images of rock layers at Mars’ surface have given scientists evidence of climate swings on ancient Mars that were driven by the wobbling of the red planet’s axis — the same mechanism that causes Earth’s ice age cycles. The stereo topographic maps of rock outcrops within four craters of Mars’ Arabia Terra region were obtained by the high-resolution camera onboard NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, which is still circling the planet. The team looked at the layering of deposits of sedimentary rocks in the outcrops to see if they could discern any patterns. The layers were a few meters (yards) to tens of meters thick. At Becquerel crater, the researchers found an alternating pattern of layers within layers that suggests that each one formed over a period of about 100,000 years as a result of cyclical climate changes. These cycles are a result of the changing degree of tilt of Mars’ orbital axis, the imaginary line running between a planet’s two poles around which it rotates, said study leader Kevin Lewis, a graduate student at Caltech. "Due to the scale of the layers, small variations in Mars’s orbit are the best candidate for the implied climate changes," Lewis said. "These are the very same changes that have been shown to set the pacing of ice ages on the Earth and can also lead to cyclic layering of sediments." The study is detailed in the Dec. 5 issue of the journal Science.
Interesting4: Still debating on whether to go real or artificial for this year’s Christmas tree? According to Newswise, the winner is that old-fashioned, living, breathing, carbon-sequestering noble fir (or any living Christmas tree, for that matter). Clint Springer, Ph.D., a botanist and global warming expert at Saint Joseph’s University in Philadelphia, said that when making the choice, environmental impact should be at the top of your list. While many consumers may think they are considering the environment when purchasing a fake tree, they may not understand the entire footprint of that PVC tree. Also, given the current economic climate, artificial trees may be appealing for their "investment" appeal, whereas a real tree is a recurrent, annual expense.
For artificial trees, the rub lies in their fabrication. First of all, to make polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastic, you need petroleum, a non-renewable, carbon-emitting resource. There’s also a release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) during their manufacture, processing and shipping. Also, don’t let the word "plastic" fool you, artificial tress are not recyclable. "Another huge drawback to fake trees is that eventually, they will end up in a landfill where they will linger in the environment forever, whereas live trees are recycled and made into mulch," Springer explains. Sure, spending a couple hundred dollars for a purchase that you could potentially use many years over sounds appealing.
However, Springer says the choice to go "live" helps the economy more, considering the Christmas tree industry brings in over $500 million annually, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. "For example, Pennsylvania boasts more Christmas tree farms than any other state – while most artificial trees are produced in China," he says. "An expenditure on a live tree results in a carbon neutral purchase that poses very little environmental threat, while injecting money into the domestic economy," said Springer. For Springer, the ideal tree is raised organically, eliminating any pollution from pesticides, fertilizers or herbicides. Also, this organic tree is raised somewhere near to the consumer, to reduce GHG emissions in transport.
Interesting5: The latest image of sea-surface height measurements from the U.S./French Jason-1 oceanography satellite shows the Pacific Ocean remains locked in a strong, cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a large, long-lived pattern of climate variability in the Pacific associated with a general cooling of Pacific waters. The image also confirms that El Niño and La Niña remain absent from the tropical Pacific. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a long-term fluctuation of the Pacific Ocean that waxes and wanes between cool and warm phases approximately every five to 20 years. In the present cool phase, higher-than-normal sea-surface heights caused by warm water form a horseshoe pattern that connects the north, west and southern Pacific. This is in contrast to a cool wedge of lower-than-normal sea-surface heights spreading from the Americas into the eastern equatorial Pacific. During most of the 1980s and 1990s, the Pacific was locked in the oscillation’s warm phase, during which these warm and cool regions are reversed
"This multi-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation ‘cool’ trend can cause La Niña-like impacts around the Pacific basin," said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. "The present cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will have significant implications for shifts in marine ecosystems, and for land temperature and rainfall patterns around the Pacific basin." According to Nathan Mantua of the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington, Seattle, whose research contributed to the early understanding of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, "Even with the strong La Niña event fading in the tropics last spring, the North Pacific’s sea surface temperature anomaly pattern has remained strongly negative since last fall. This cool phase will likely persist this winter and, perhaps, beyond. Historically, this situation has been associated with favorable ocean conditions for the return of U.S. west coast Coho and Chinook salmon, but it translates to low odds for abundant winter/spring precipitation in the southwest (including Southern California)."
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